"How The World Sees Russia" Issue #46: 03/02/2019 From the Publisher: We begin this issue with the latest on the Boris Nemtsov protests. The deceased opposition figure who was murdered near the Kremlin in 2015 still carries political weight. Last week, thousands were reported to have taken to the streets of Moscow to honor his memory. A powerful symbol of dissent against Russian President Vladimir Putin whose popularity has been weakening. Russian state-TV recently listed a series of potential targets that Russia could consider in the unlikely scenario of a nuclear attack on the U.S. This has been seen as mostly yet another form of saber-rattling by Moscow. We look at why this was mostly for show, specifically when taking into account the targets that were showcased. The group behind Russia’s popular AK-47 has developed a revolutionary drone. It is said to be cheap and effective in comparison to other competing models. With drones becoming an increasing presence in the battlefield, we ponder the possibilities of this becoming a kind of 21 st century AK-47. The latter remains one of the most popular weapons in warfare. Finally, we look at how the latest MIG-29 deliveries to Serbia help Russia from a geopolitical standpoint. Belgrade has always had a strong and special relationship with Moscow. This is just the latest example of how these two nations are working together. -Rossiya Scan Putin Faces Protests... Russia and the world are at a crossroads, and we want to determine to what extent Russia’s future is in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hands. In previous issues we have discussed how the two key pillars which hold Russia; the people and the army are disgruntled with their leaders. Putin has had to face meagre opposition recently, but when challenged, the opposition has been brutally crushed. Moreover, a disgruntled nation which no longer fears its leader/oppressor (depending which angle you eye it from) can be very unpredictable, especially given the resilient nature of the Russian people. Boris Nemtsov, the most recent “rebel" to rattle Putin’s court, was mysteriously murdered near the Kremlin in 2015. However, solving a problem with murder can patch it short term, but bring greater headaches on the long run. Nemtsov has become a martyr and a symbol of freedom in Russia. Protests against Putin are unusual, and met with hostility, but on the 27 th of February, according to White Counter (an NGO), 10.600 people protested in memory of the slain “rebel”. The figure of a martyr is very powerful, can always be resurrected and if used when the timing is right, can become a catalyst for something greater. These protests need to be dealt with cautiously, as things can escalate rapidly as we have seen in Egypt, Libya and Venezuela. We believe that Putin is still a strong figure amongst his people, even though his popularity is close to all time lows. We firmly believe that the future of Russia remains mostly in his power though, as externalities such as international sanctions, corruption exposure and local opposition can weaken, but not destroy him. This protest is a sign of an underlying sentiment many Russian people hold. Putin needs to contain this feeling without causing more unease. The best way to overcome this threat, is focusing more on the economic and social well being of the Russian people, rather then pushing so aggressively his agenda of bringing Russia to greatness again. He has many fronts open internationally, but being spread to thinly abroad makes him lose focus where it counts the most, internally. Read more: “Boris Nemtsov: Thousands March Against Vladimir Putin in Memory of slain Russian Opposition Leader,” by Samuel Osborne for the Independent. “Russians March in Memory of Boris Nemtsov Four Years After His Murder,” by Evan Gershkovich for the Moscow. “What Russia's Latest Protests Mean for Putin,” by Julia Ioffe for the Atlantic. “Burying a Martyr in Moscow,” by Anna Nemtsova for the Daily Beast. Russia Lists Potential U.S Nuclear Targets... Shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin told the world that Russia would not be afraid to enter a new Cuban Missile style crisis with the U.S after the ending of the INF treaty, a very colorful piece of rhetoric was expressed by another semi-official arm of the Kremlin. What was this? A Russia state-owned TV highlighted a map of the U.S which showcased potential targets. The targets shown on Russia-1's broadcast included the Pentagon, Camp David, Jim Creek Naval Radio Station in Washington, and two closed military bases. The last two were thus characterized as odd choices, by both U.S and Russian media outlets. Moscow and Washington have been developing plans on how to carry out a nuclear attack on each other since the Cold War. Large population centers deemed culturally important are considered important targets by untrained professionals. However, when it comes to nuclear war between nuclear powers, the main aim of an attack is to destroy the enemy’s nuclear forces. Hence, in reality, states like North Dakota and Montana, which have military nuclear sites or infrastructure are far more important targets, than well-known cities like New York City or Los Angeles. As nuclear powers have improved their the precision of their weapons, and their intelligence collection capabilities, the emphasis of conventional nuclear attacks moved from cities to nuclear war infrastructure and stockpiles. However, even if Russia were to pull-off a complete attack against every fixed military nuclear silo, infrastructure, stockpile and control centers in the U.S, it would still likely fail in its purpose. That is, to wipeout the threat of retaliation by the U.S. "It's exceedingly unlikely that such an attack would be fully successful," said Stephen Schwartz, author of Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of US Nuclear Weapons Since 1940, in an interview with Business Insider. "There's an enormous amount of variables in pulling off an attack like this flawlessly, and it would have to be flawless. If even a handful of weapons escape, the stuff you missed will be coming back at you." Why? With silos and planes gone…. U.S nuclear submarines would still be around…. And they would retaliate. Therefore, Russia is again simply saber-rattling with these videos. As well as trying to elicit some extra sense of patriotic fervor from some base of supporters in light of the ending of the INF treaty. The bottom line, Russia like the U.S know that this scenario would surely lead to not just their destruction, but also much of the world, if not all of it. Read more: "Russia Threatened to Vaporize US cities — Here Are The areas In the US Most Likely To be Hit In A Nuclear Attack," by Alex Lockie for Business Insider. "Russia State TV Publishes A List Of U.S.Targets Kremlin Would Hit During Nuclear War," by Cristina Maza for Newsweek. "Russian TV Lists Potential Nuclear Strike Targets in US after Putin Warning," by Edmund DeMarche for Fox News. "After Putin's Warning, Russian TV Lists Nuclear Targets in U.S.," by Andrew Osborn for Reuters. Could This Be The 'AK-47' Of The 21st Century? “I made it to protect the motherland” – Mikhail Kalashnikov, Inventor of the AK-47. We all are familiar with the famed AK-47 (name stands for "Kalashnikov's Automatic" and the year it was designed, 1947) or also known as the people’s gun, invented by Mikhail Kalashnikov selling over 100MM rifles worldwide. This man is a depiction of Russian resilience, and genius. A self taught peasant who didn’t even finish high-school, went from tank mechanic to design the most iconic weapon of the 20 th century. The impact of this cheap, effective and versatile weapon invented in 1947 can be seen to this day across the globe, used in conflict regions by regular armies and rebels alike, to gangsters, bandits and terrorists. Recently we have been discussing almost weekly new Russian military developments, a clear-cut indicator of an escalating global arms race. Still, this new development is special as the house name creating this cheap, effective and versatile new weapon is the Kalashnikov group. It’s almost like they are attempting to replicate what AK-47 did in the 20th century, as a symbol of resistance and war, but for the 21st century. Drones or UCAVs (unmanned combat aerial vehicles), have become a pivotal element of modern warfare. The U.S with its “American Reaper Drones” has been unmatched for decades in aerial drone warfare, striking at will with its “Hell Fire” missiles, covertly neutralizing its enemies. However, the Kalashnikov Group has developed and showcased its brand new “suicide” drone which can change the face of war. Just as a footnote, Israel is also advanced in drone development, but mostly for reconnaissance purposes. A major milestone when developing drones to be effective was battery life and load, it seems the Kalashnikov group has come with the answer to these two hurdles. Furthermore, before we get more in depth into the capabilities and consequences of this new “suicide” drone baptized KUB-UAV; we would like to briefly highlight that a drone attack on a Russian base in Syria consequently advanced the development of this new piece of equipment to become the flagship of the Russian army. The KUB is roughly the size of a coffee table, can fly for 30 minutes at a speed of 80 mph and carries six pounds of explosives. Basically the equivalent of a small, accurate and cheap cruise missile. Only U.S smart bombs can match these capabilities, although they still don’t come in such small packages. A drone is a robot, it has no feelings and will mercilessly collide with any object its programmed to do so. Moreover, it narrows the gap between the military superiority a country could have with another. Once again Russia is developing weapons which are cheap and effective, have defensive and offensive capabilities. The cost