"How The World Sees Russia" Issue #36: 12/1/2018 From the Publisher: This week’s Rossiya Scan is heavily focused on Russia’s ongoing foreign policy strategy. We visit various corners of the world in a attempt to decipher its moves, potential strengths plus drawbacks. We begin of course by taking a look at the crisis in Sea of Azov. Both Kiev and Moscow have again had a direct confrontation. Each is blaming each other, and the crisis between these two nations is reaching yet again a low point. The West has sided with the Ukraine, however, it has offered nothing more than words. Leaving Ukraine again to deal with its much larger and powerful neighbor. Russia and Japan are not allies, and have had territorial disputes for quite some time. That being said, both have a fear of China, and are constantly talking to one another. We look deeper into this relationship and see how it fits with Russia’s overall geopolitical strategy. Russian Private Military Contractors (PMCs) have become an integral part of Russia’s strategy in Africa. These soldiers of fortune are said to be acting in unison with the Kremlin, and are part of the package that they are offering to African leaders, as far as obtaining mineral rights in the continent. This is giving Moscow an edge in an area where other powers are spending much more money for influence. Finally, we look at the Russian Navy again. This time at their submarines, and how this is an area where Moscow appears to have developed an edge. -Rossiya Scan The Sea of Azov Boils Last Sunday, Russia shot at and seized three Ukrainian ships in the Black Sea. Hostilities began between both countries when Russia allegedly blocked three Ukranian Navy vessels in the Kerch strait. The latter is the waterway that connects the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov. According to Russian security services, 3 Ukrainian servicemen were wounded in the incident with non-life threatening injuries. Russia has claimed that the Ukrainian ships entered their territorial waters, and did not submit the right transit applications. The latter were recently introduced by Moscow to ensure “safe navigation.” On the other hand, Ukraine states that Russia is in violation of their 2003 agreement that treats both the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait as shared waters. Kiev has the backing of the West in their claim of events, and accuse Russia of blocking Ukraine’s access to the Sea of Azov plus using force without justification. Last Wednesday, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signed an act that has imposed martial law in all areas bordering Russia, as well as the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. Russia insists that the Ukrainian vessels violated a strip of 12-nautical miles located of the coast of its annexed Crimea region. The problem for Moscow is that Crimea has yet to be recognized internationally as Russian. Meaning that in the eyes of most the world Crimea is Ukrainian. "One should remember that Russia's attempted annexation of Crimea has not been recognized by any state in the world, so Russia cannot pretend it has full control over the naval border," said Olexiy Makeyev, political director for the Ukrainian foreign ministry, in an interview with Al Jazeera. Maja Kocijančič, the EU spokesperson for foreign affairs plus security, called for both Russia and Ukraine to, “de-escalate the situation immediately.” Further stating, that the EU does not recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Referring to it as, “illegal.” Poroshenko has asked NATO to send warships to the Sea of Azov to provide security. NATO foreign ministers will meet in Brussels this Monday to discuss the situation. However, it is unlikely that they will send any ships. After all, Ukraine is not a member of the alliance. In fact, it was Kiev’s moves towards joining the alliance, and the EU, that many consider as the reason why Russia ventured into the Ukraine. German Chancellor, Angela Merkel stated that no military solution was on the table despite her criticism of Moscow. “The Ukrainian side has asked us to act wisely,” said Merkel, according The Guardian. “There is no military solution to these problems, we have to emphasize that.” Meanwhile U.S president Donald Trump is said to have cancelled his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin during this weekend’s G20 summit in Argentina as a result of this incident. The Kerch strait is of considerable significance for the Ukraine. It allows its port cities of Mariupol and Berdyansk to the Black Sea. The price of Ukrainian exports would likely increase if it were to be cut off from it. Amongst these exports are Ukraine’s metals of which a quarter go through Mariupol. Plans to build a naval base in either Mariupol or Berdyansk, as stated by Poroshenko in September, would also have to be put on hold. On the other hand, for Russia this strait is very symbolic as the bridge it has built over it is the only direct link that Crimea has with Russia. It is also yet a gain a place where it can put even more pressure on Ukraine. The latter is essentially a country that has more or less been abandoned by the West, and has the difficult task of essentially single-handedly pushing back its more powerful neighbor. A difficult job, considering that Russia is unlikely to leave Crimea, and taking into account how sanctions have failed to deter Moscow from venturing forward with its military actions. Europe is also moving ahead with the Nord stream 2 pipeline, something that it needs to ensure its energy security, and that will ultimately force it to have an ongoing productive relationship with Moscow because of the dependency that is to ensue with it. Also, most importantly, because the Nord Stream 2 will bypass eastern European transit countries (such as the Ukraine) and leave them more at the mercy of Russia as far as gas supply. This means that the more powerful Western European nations will still be able to obtain gas should Russia exert its force on its eastern European neighbors, and not have as much of a need to act on their behalf should things go sour. Read more: "Explainer: Ukraine-Russia Dispute Over Territorial Waters," by Tamila Varshalomidze for Aljazeera. "Ukraine President Calls for NATO Warships in Sea of Azov," by Patrick Wintour for the Guardian. "Ukraine-Russia Sea Clash: Trump Cancels Putin Talks," by the BBC. "Russia's High Seas Stunt Off Ukraine is Ramping Up Tensions at the G20," by Evan Dyer for the CBC. ​ Russia & Japan: Old Squabbles, New friendships Russia and Japan have had a quarrelsome history, ever since Moscow and Tokyo established diplomatic ties 128 years ago. Mainly based on territorial disputes, over a chain of islands (Kuril & Sakhalin) that runs between Japanese mainland and Russia’s Kamchatka peninsula. This territorial dispute has always been a major obstacle, complicating relations between the two countries. However, the geo-political scenario evolves over time, posing new threats and challenges ahead. Namely China. This obliges Russia and Japan, to forget old squabbles and think strategically on how to secure their interests and sovereignty working together, rather than against each other. Although this relationship needs to be carefully knitted, Japan and China have always been contesting their hegemony in Asia. Even though China is more powerful at the moment, remnants of past altercations are latent, last time these two nations were confronted was in the early 20 th century. Even though China expelled Japan from the mainland, they were terribly humiliated during the years of brutal Japanese occupation. Hard to forget. In Rossiya Scan we have consistently highlighted that one thing is what Russia wants to project, another its real intentions ​. Currently Russia projects good relations with China. Moscow is becoming more and more dependent on its Sino-neighbors and building new lines of cooperation, even in defense matters. Notwithstanding it’s a mutually beneficial relationship at the moment. Still, a Japanese and Russian “backdoor” alignment is a much needed counterbalance in Asia. Russia likes playing both sides, and is looking to expand its energy exports into Asia, the perfect excuse to engage with Japan more actively. Russia is presently suffering economic sanctions imposed by the West. Nonetheless, Russia has an acute sense of survival and has ventured cross borders looking for new markets to reduce its dependence on Western trade plus financing. Russian President Vladimir Putin has met with Japanese Prime-minister Shinzo Abe 21 times in the past 6 years, signs of progress are visible between both nations. Furthermore, together with South Korea, Japan is the U.S’s strongest ally in Asia. Also, having engaged in the disputes over claims in the South China sea. Japan has a plan to re-militarize, which began in 2017, mostly using North American military equipment, which unsettles China. It’s interesting to observe China consolidating its position in Asia, together with its close perceived ties with Russia. Japan’s re-militarization, backed up by the U.S ( who we believe has a “backdoor” communication channel with Russia ) is contesting Chinese hegemony in Asia. All these movements are a diplomatic strategy being set in motion. Russia may not be Japan’s best friend, but starting to have an understanding is a good hedge for them if things eventually get sour with China. China would feel pretty lonely without Russia; they will never risk this. However, Russia will have to make a move if they ever feel threatened by China. In order to coordinate this effectively, Russia needs to lay down its pieces strategically in the global chess board. Japan is an important place to put such a piece. Read more : “Japan Wants Closer Relations with Russia. Good Luck with That,” by Stratfor. “Japan and Russia consider high-level framework to push peace treaty talks,” by the Japan Times . “Putin Surprises