"How The World Sees Russia" Issue #48: 03/23/2019 From the Publisher: Has Kazakhstan provided us with clues as to how Russian President Vladimir Putin will carry out his eventual transition? With this difficult question, we begin our issue. Kazakhstan’s longtime President Nursultan Nazarbayev has resigned, but kept substantial powers. This move has been widely seen as the first step for an eventual government transfer. Rumors regarding, how, and when a transition will happen in Russia have been circulating for a while. Especially, as 2024 gets nearer, which is speculated to be Putin’s last year in office, as the longtime Russian leader is currently not allowed to seek office again by the constitution. Could Putin learn something from Nazarbayev? We look into what experts are saying and try to find an answer to this difficult question. Russia is still working towards obtaining its own 5 th generation jet. This project has had multiple setbacks. Russia needs this jet if it wishes to maintain its military competitiveness from not just a defense standpoint, but also in terms of commerce. Russia has been fortifying its relationship with Egypt from botha defense and commerce standpoint. This important player in the Middle East is one that Russia needs if it wishes to maintain its enviable position within the region. It appears that Moscow understands this and is making positive strides towards building and improving its relationship with Cairo. Russia has decided to send nuclear capable bombers to Crimea. There are both foreign and domestic reasons for the deployment of these planes. We do our best to unpack them, and assess the meaning behind this latest spat. -Rossiya Scan Can Putin Have A Kazakh Style Retirement? Last week, Kazakhstan’s President, Nursultan Nazarbayev announced his resignation. The 78-year old politician, who ran the former Soviet-state since 1990, is going to keep significant powers, but has essentially left room for a sort of transition with this move. Nazarbayev handed over power to a trusted ally, but will still be chairing the country’s influential Security Council, all while maintaining the honorific title “leader of the nation.” Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana, is also going to be renamed Nursultan in his honor. Of course, it is still too early to tell if this form of succession is successful in the long-run. However, the ease with which the first steps have been carried has made many believe that other authoritarian rulers from the region could make use of this playbook, if it proves to be effective. As all of this happens, many are wondering if Russian President Vladimir Putin will find inspiration from this move, and borrow it when the time comes. Putin is facing a succession problem as he gets closer to the end of his current term in 2024, as he is constitutionally barred from running again for president. “The Nazarbayev scenario could suit the political elite, which wants to have an arbiter who can influence the process after the successor takes over,” said Andrei Kolyadin, a former Kremlin official who works as a political consultant, in an interview with Bloomberg. Prior to this possibility, other theories of succession have been discussed. Many, however, are more about how Putin can extend his stay. Amending the constitution would be a straightforward way of achieving this. However, Putin has stated countless of times that he will not do this. Another more ambitious project has been the idea of uniting Russia and Belarus . This union would create a new sovereign state, thereby allowing Putin to serve as its leader. Of course, such a union appears to be unlikely, as it currently has little fanfare in Belarus. Could Putin carryout at this moment a transitionary move like Nursultan? Some experts believe that this is not possible. Although there are lots of similarities between both countries, such as in their economy and autocratic public administration system, there are key differences. For starters, there are more factions within the elite in Russia, and a more organized (although still very weak) political opposition. The existence of these two ingredients essentially mean that Putin could face an immediate challenge if he purposefully weakened his position of power. In other words, Putin needs to do a lot of groundwork before considering a move like Nazarbayev. “Putin can only envy [Nazarbayev],” said Arkady Dubnov , a Moscow-based central Asia political expert to Bloomberg. “It won’t work for him.” Moscow is likely to watch the transition process in Kazakhstan closely. After all, it does offer a potential toolset that it could use, or ignore, depending on the outcome. Read more: "Kremlin Wonders If Putin Will Follow in Kazakh Leader’s Footsteps" by Henry Meyer, Ilya Arkhipov, and Stepan Kravchenko for Bloomberg. "The Week In Russia: Do Kremlin Bosses Dream In Kazakh?" by Steve Gutterman for RFE/RL. "Putin Wants a Kazakh Retirement" by Alexander Baunov for Foreign Policy. "Kazakh Autocrat Shows Putin How To Keep Power" by Leonid Bershidsky for The Moscow Times. Russia Wants Its Own 5th Generation Jet.... “Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible” – Eddie Rickenbacker, U.S Fighter Pilot In previous issues, we have discussed the strategic importance of a strong navy, moreover a strong navy combined with a lethal air force is a deadly brew. Nonetheless, a stealthy supersonic fighter jet without a strong navy supporting it, is also a force to be reckoned with. Russia has been notorious due to budget constraints to craft defensive weapons which are affordable and highly effective. However, every once in a while they surprise the world with a next generation weapon which has prodigious offensive capabilities. We are nearing the delivery of a total of 15 fifth-generation Su-57 fighters with multifunctional Mig-35 systems, or at least that’s what President Yuri Slyusar from Russian weapons giant United Aircraft Corporation claims. This new generation of fighters is a great leap when compared with their older brothers (Su-30), although with Russia one never knows, Western analyst assert the delivery of the Su-57 will be later than sooner; on top of other constraints which could cripple the mass adoption of this 5 th generation fighter jet. Before we pick on the drawbacks, lets highlight the features which position the Su-57 as a powerful tool which could tilt the powers to be in the skies. Designed as a lean and agile acrobatic maneuvering tool, the Russians have taken risks incorporating brand new concepts; such as directional infrared countermeasure systems which fires laser beams to throw missiles of course. The 3D thrust, gives a tremendous advantage for one on one visual range fights, and different trade offs have been incorporated in their radar systems which if used correctly could give an overwhelming advantage when engaging with enemy forces. Be that as it may, Russia has two major hurdles it needs to overcome to successfully bring this project to fruition. First and foremost, it needs the funds to finish the production of the the batch. India was initially a strategic partner as a joint producer, although they claim to have withdrawn from the pact to produce the jets themselves. Albeit these claims, Russia is confident they can re-direct India to join once again and are already in talks. This is essential for solvency issues, as Russia is suffering the consequences of Western economic sanctions, and an anemic oil market. Furthermore, once and if the Su-57 is successfully completed and in time; how do you scale and mass produce this supersonic bird? In order for this jet to become the flagship of the Russian air force and become a detrimental piece in the puzzle of military strategy it needs to be mass produced, prove to be affordable (not a total ruin like the F-35 of Lockheed Martin) and have reliable production processes. All in all, there still remains a lot to be done and demonstrated. Time will tell if the Su-57 will prevail and be an alternative to the F-35 within its league of allies. One thing is for sure, if everything works out (according to Slyusar statements) the new capabilities of this fighter jet could be much greater than we think if put to practice properly. Read more: “Russia to Receive First Su-57 Stealth Fighter In 2019,” by Franz-Stefan Gady for the Diplomat . “Here Comes the Stealth: Is Russia's Su-57 Almost Here,” by Mark Episkopos for National Interest . “No, The Su-57 Isn't 'Junk:' Six Features We like On Russia's New Fighter,” by Tyler Rogoway for the Drive . “Lockheed Agrees To Cut Price For New F-35 Fighter Jets: Pentagon,” by Mike Stone for Reuters . With Egypt, Russia Strengthens Position In Middle East... Rossiya Scan has always showcased Russia’s prowess in securing its role as the power broker of the Middle East . We haven’t only focused on highlighting its achievements, but also the dangers and setbacks of this strategy. You cannot befriend everyone perpetually, somewhere or someday Russia will have to choose sides. Egypt is the heart of the Middle East, the birthplace of Pan-Arabism under Gamal Nasser, stressing the importance of this nation in the Middle Eastern puzzle. Present day relations between Egypt and Russia are strong to the dismay of the U.S, trade and cooperation is flourishing. Just to highlight an example, Egypt and Russia signed a 50-year agreement in Moscow to establish a Russian Industrial Zone (RIZ) in the Suez Canal economic zone; lets not forget that the Suez Canal is key maritime route in global trade, especially for oil. Nonetheless, not so long ago relations were sour when ISIS downed a Russian civilian plane within Egyptian airspace. Russia continues to sell its highly effective military equipment across the world, a good chunk of it in the Middle East. Forging good relations regionally and with a departing U.S,