"How The World Sees Russia" Issue #33: 11/10/2018 From the Publisher: This week’s Rossiya Scan starts with another serious look at Sino-Russia relations. This alliance is one of necessity, and is not set in stone. Both sides know the benefits of this relationship, and are growing closer. However, both do not trust each other, because of a tumultuous history, and their respective global ambitions. We begin by looking at the one aspect the brings them together: fear of the U.S. Recently, a U.S General admitted that both countries were “peers” in terms of competition, signaling that the U.S is taking Russia and China very seriously. So much so, that analysis amongst experts about an actual conflict in the future has become more prevalent. In fact, when discussing the possibility of a war with both, a retired U.S Lt. General even admitted that the U.S would have a tough time fighting both China and Russia. This is despite the fact the U.S military defense budget, and its armed forces level of combat experience, are both much greater than those of Russia and China. We then move on to a more detailed analysis of the Sino-Russian alliance. Here we look further into its foundation, and consider the reasons why it works, and where it could fail to work. This alliance has gotten stronger over the years. However, we foresee possible problems in the future, and shed light into this complicated relationship. The U.S decision to officially withdraw from the Iran treaty and impose sanctions on Tehran took place this week. Oil markets did not soar like many expected. Russia and Saudi Arabia are working together to maintain the price at point that is beneficial to both. We look further into what’s happening between Saudi Arabia and Russia, plus how the U.S’s current 'sanction-happy' foreign policy is backfiring. Finally, we take a look at the latest new set of sanctions on Russia by the U.S. We see what effect they are having, and how they are unlikely to cause the harm the U.S hopes for. -Rossiya Scan U.S General: Russia & China are “Peer Competitors”... In March 2014, U.S President Barack Obama dismissed Russia as a “regional power”. The context of this statement was a reference to Russia’s military intervention in the Ukraine the prior month. “Russia is a regional power that is threatening some of its immediate neighbors — not out of strength but out of weakness,” said Obama during an official European trip. However, the winds have changed in Washington D.C, and the view of Russia as a an influential player with regional capabilities, is simply not there anymore. “If you think about the 1990s," said Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford referencing the collapse of the Soviet Union, according to Business Insider. "The United States had no competitor, and as we look at Russia and China today, we see Russia and China as peer competitors." Russia and China’s ability to carry out effective attacks in all domains of warfare have now made the U.S see both as serious challengers to their military supremacy. “From a military perspective, we have two states now that can challenge our ability to project power and challenge us in all five domains — ground, sea, air, space, and cyberspace — and that's what's different than in the 1990s," said Dunford. Dunford is wary of calling this conflict a, “New Cold War”. Dismissing it as merely “competition”, however, the actions of NATO, Russia and China are reminiscent of the Cold War. In fact, we at Rossiya Scan believe we are in a “New Cold War,” and that Dunford is sugarcoating the issue, in an honest effort to defuse the situation. In other words, Dunford is aware his words carry meaning, and is acting responsibly. As stated in a prior issue of Rossiya Scan, Russia with China, and a small contingent from Mongolia, carried out military exercises last September with Vostok-18. The latter, was the largest military exercises of its kind since 1981. All 29 NATO members, plus Sweden and Finland, also carried out massive war games in Norway for the Trident Juncture 2018 over the past few weeks. These were also the largest military war games that the NATO alliance had since the Cold War. This constant level of sword-rattling reactions, military build-ups, cyber-attacks, election meddling, proxy-conflicts plus several espionage controversies, tell us clearly that a New Cold War is here. The idea of war between the U.S, Russia and China, was basically unthinkable a decade ago. Now, this scary scenario, although still unlikely, is a regular topic of analysis amongst experts, and is moving from theoretical to the practical, as evident by the preparations and training of each country’s armed forces. The U.S remains the undisputed champ as far as overall capabilities (e.g. militarily and economically), and reach. However, if it caught in a war with China and Russia, the consequences would be dire. Even if we ignore nuclear weapons, and simply focus on conventional might. The U.S would be caught in a two front war, where China is likely to be its main point of concern. “We do not have the capacity in the United States to be able to deter Russia, to be the bulwark against possible Russian aggression, and deal with China,” said Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the just-retired commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, according to the Daily Beast. Further stating that in such a war, "most of American assets would be focused in the pacific." China, as stated in a prior issue of Rossiya Scan , is a concern for the U.S. However, China, although ally of Russia, is also a concern for Moscow, as stated before. These powers, are aware of each their ambitions, and know that each can inflict pain upon each other if necessary. That being said, China and Russia are aligned against the U.S and are unlikely to break, unless of a serious rift. They know that together they can worry less, and pose a better counter-weight on the U.S, the world’s current top power. Read more: "Obama Dismisses Russia as "Regional Power' acting out of Weakness" by Scott Wilson for the Washington Post. "The U.S Military's Top Officer Says Russia and China Present Different Challenges - But They Both Can Rival U.S Power," by Christpher Woody for Business Insider. "Top General Fears War with Russia and China at the Same Time," by Gordon G. Chang for the Daily Beast. "Are We Truly Prepared for a War with Russia or China?" by Michael Spirtas for The Hill. Sino-Russia Relations: How True is this ‘Love’? In previous issues, Rossiya Scan has pointed out the noteworthy, and potentially dangerous connotations of the Sino-Russian friendship. As DaShanne Stokes, a sociologist and author, once said, “if you lay with a scorpion, don’t be surprised when it finally stings you”. Currently, two scorpions lay together, patiently waiting on how this liaison will unravel. Accusations with no definite judicial sentences (e.g. the Sergey Skripal poisoning, meddling U.S elections) and international pressure (via economic sanctions), are bringing China and Russia every day closer to one another. Western forces, are not paying the necessary attention to the reconciliation between these two global powers. Primarily because of old “perceptions”, such as the view of U.S secretary of Defense James Mattis, “which holds that mistrust between Russia and China is too deep to form meaningful strategic bonds”. However, times change, circumstances evolve and your once perceived rival can become your roommate in tricky times. International pressure is helping China forge stronger economic ties with Russia (China is now their largest trading partner), and also build a military bond between both nations (Vostok 18). The latter should be of great concern, to Western powers. Russia and China need to reduce dependence on U.S trade, and U.S dollar hegemony. Therefore, trade has considerably increased between these two nations, especially with militarily equipment (most recently S400 missiles and Su-35 fighter jets). The purchase of S400 missiles from Russia, has given China a strategic military advantage in the region. These missiles allow China to control Taiwanese airspace, challenging Taiwanese air force and U.S strategic planning in the region. Furthermore, several energy projects are being undertaken in conjunction due to western sanctions, which have squeezed Russian sources of financing, and allowed China to seize this opportunity. Most strategic projects are in the arctic circle. Nonetheless, we also believe that China is continuously improving the development of its military equipment and with time military trade between these two nations will considerably decrease, as China develops stronger and more competitive military weapons. Russia is simply cashing in, for as long as it can in this trade relation. In the future, market share for Asia could be a source of conflict. Besides the obvious signs of friendship and tokens of appreciation in the Sino-Russian friendship, we have also spotted a few bumps on the path. Russia allegedly rehearsed for a potential conflict with China in the “Vostok 18” games. U.S President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are no longer allegedly meeting in Paris to discuss the INF treaty. However, both are likely to meet in the G20 summit in Argentina at the end of the month. As we mentioned in a prior issue , the INF treaty gives China a huge advantage, so we speculate that Russia and the U.S (perceived enemies) are likely to touch upon this during closed door meetings. One thing is for sure, we are in unchartered waters and Russia is behaving astutely. That being said, all hell can break loose rapidly, Russia’s hidden agenda could backfire, and leave it by itself in this situation, if its not careful. Read more : “U.S Trade Sanctions Push Russia, China Closer Together,” by Jamie Seidel for News “The United States Makes One Smart Move on Russia