"How The World Sees Russia" Issue #37: 12/08/2018 From the Publisher: This week’s Rossiya Scan covers some of the most important topics affecting Russia from an international standpoint. We begin first by looking at the latest U.S show of force against Russia, in both the Ukraine and the Pacific. Moscow’s latest conflict with Kiev in the Black Sea plus its growing presence in the Pacific has led the U.S to make a military statement by both the sea and air. We analyze the meaning of these moves by the U.S along with their efficacy, as far as their probability of achieving their intended geopolitical goals. We then move on to the latest developments regarding the INF (Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces) treaty. Russia has stated that it will respond in kind to the U.S withdrawal, if it were to take place. There is more than Russia vs. the U.S in this squabble though. China is again another actor that we believe is pushing Russia and the U.S reconsider the treaty. The Arctic Circle is an area where a lot of countries have considerable geopolitical interests. Russia is a country that has its eyes on the north, and that has a large presence in it. We delve deeper into this growing flashpoint, and breakdown its importance. Finally, we again look at the deteriorating state of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Russia and Saudi Arabia are acting in unison to better control the price. This commercial alliance has provided both countries with a lot of power. For now, this alliance is one of convenience, but if fortified over time this partnership could very well become what OPEC was for most of its existence. -Rossiya Scan The U.S Military is Vexing Russia… This week, Washington D.C responded to Moscow’s latest incursions into the Ukraine with a show of force. Using both an American ship and plane to tell Russia that it does not approve of their incursions into the Ukraine, or its growing role in the Pacific. Last Thursday, a U.S Air Force OC-135 observation aircraft flew an "extraordinary flight" under the Open Skies Treaty to showcase Washington D.C’s commitment to Kiev. This flight came one day after the U.S Navy sailed the guided missile destroyer USS McCampbell in waters claimed by Russia near the Sea of Japan. These moves by the U.S military are designed to annoy Russia, and at best keep Moscow at bay in regards to further military incursions. "Russia's unprovoked attack on Ukrainian naval vessels in the Black Sea near the Kerch Strait is a dangerous escalation in a pattern of increasingly provocative and threatening activity," said Eric Pahon, a Pentagon spokesperson in an interview with CNN. "The United States seeks a better relationship with Russia, but this cannot happen while its unlawful and destabilizing actions continue in Ukraine and elsewhere." Such shows of support are important to the Ukraine. A country that is heavily outgunned by Russia, and that desperately needs proper allies in its (for the most part) lonely fight against Moscow. The country is currently contemplating sending more naval ships to the Kerch strait. A move that could inflame the situation, but that Kiev feels it must follow through with based on the simple concept national sovereignty. The move in the Sea of Japan is also preemptive. Russia has been working towards strengthening its position in the Pacific over the past few years. ​ "It should be clear by now that when (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is not confronted, he will continue to act aggressively against the interests of the U.S and our allies," said Boris Zilberman, a Russia expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington D.C-based think.tank. "Russia must know that the U.S will not allow them to militarize international waterways in key areas such as the Black Sea, the Sea of Japan or Okhotsk, or elsewhere.” Although the U.S has certainly made its presence felt through the sales of weapons, and with the dispatching of military advisors to the Ukraine. In the Pacific, the U.S presence as far as countering Russian moves has been less prevalent. China has in fact been the biggest concern in this part of the world. The USS McCampbell was actually the first freedom of navigation operation in the disputed water of the Sea of Japan since 1987. In other words, since the Cold War. Russia is unlikely to engage in combat with the U.S military. The same is the case for the U.S in regards to the Russian military. Both know that a conventional conflict would result in a bloodbath. A nuclear one would simply annihilate the world. Hence, these moves by the U.S are likely to deter Russia from further incursions while they are being carried out. The truth is that Russia has the upper hand though. They have been able to annex and help establish separatist regions (e.g. Ukraine & Georgia) without much of fight from the U.S, the EU or NATO. Russia is unlikely to attack if U.S troops are present or carrying out such missions. However, in the case of the Ukraine, U.S troops are not there permanently, and it is not a part of NATO. Unlike Japan which does have a bilateral defense alliance with the U.S along with a permanent U.S military presence. Russia knows this and will push forward in the Ukraine if it feels it must for whatever security or geopolitical concern. As long as Russia’s fight is not with U.S, NATO or a treaty backed U.S ally, it will act more aggressively and with less concerns. Read more: "U.S Military Flexes Muscles in Message to Russia," by Zachary Cohen and Ryan Browne for CNN. "In Warning to Russia, U.S Flies Open Sky Aircraft Over Ukrainian Territory," by Aaron Mehta for Defense News. "U.S Destroyer Sails Near Russia Claimed Waters in Sea of Japan," by Rebecca Kheel for The Hill. "Kyiv Says Russia Blocking Kerch Strait, Plans to Send Ukrainian Navy Ships," by staff at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Are We Entering a Post-INF World? Previously in Rossiya Scan we have already discussed the dangers of a potential break-up of the INF (Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces) treaty. Things are getting very heated between NATO, the U.S and Russia, and all are pointing fingers at each other. Both sides are claiming that the treaty is not being respected by one another. "Allies have concluded that Russia has developed and fielded a missile system, the 9M729, which violates the INF Treaty and poses significant risks to Euro-Atlantic security," the NATO foreign ministers' statement read. Russia, claims that these accusations are an excuse for the U.S to abandon the treaty. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Wednesday that Russia will respond in kind if the U.S decides to develop new intermediate-range nuclear missiles. This threat is not only addressed to the U.S for future development of new missiles, but also to the European countries. Specially those which station U.S Intermediate range missiles. Namely Poland (which has a long history of animosity with Russia) and Romania. The greatest loser if the treaty is terminated, would definitely be Europe. ​ However, as we have previously pointed out there is another critical underlying factor which is not being given the attention it should. China is not bound by this treaty, and for the past decade has been stocking up with intermediate missiles. Moreover, these missiles have been strategically positioned in the artificial reefs in the South China sea to counter potential enemy offensives. Again, Rossiya Scan believes that the South China sea will be a major point of conflict in the future between regional and global powers. China has had a considerable advantage over Russia and the U.S in the past decades, not having to adhere to this treaty, giving it an opportunity to catch up and build strong defenses. Nonetheless, in order for Russia to preserve its mutually beneficial relationship with China, they need to project on the surface discrepancies with the U.S, which is going hard after China with Trump’s “America First” policy. On the other hand, we still believe in the existence of a “back channel” of communication between Russia and the U.S. China has been doing whatever they pleased for decades, now finally a nation (the U.S) which for now happens to be the most powerful country in the world, is standing up to them. This is a chess game, and it is hard to know the real intentions, and what is going on behind the scenes. But it's important to dive deeper into a perceived open problem, and look at the collateral effects that can derive from the INF treaty being crippled. At a first glance, Europe suffers the greatest loss. Peel another layer of the onion, probably China is the one that will be most unsatisfied with this on the long run. Maybe this is what the U.S and Russia want in the end, aligning their interest to corner China. Read more: “Putin Vows to ‘React Accordingly’ if U.S. Withdraws From Nuclear Treaty,” by Neil MacFarquhar for the New York Times . “Russia Will Build Missiles if U.S leaves Treaty, Putin Warns,” by BBC staff. “NATO Accuses Russia of Breaking Nuclear Missile Treaty,” by BBC staff. “Trump says U.S will Withdraw from Nuclear Arms Treaty with Russia,” by Julian Borger and Martin Pengelly for the Guardian . The Arctic Circle: A Growing Flashpoint … Since the beginning of time resources, money and power have always been a major source of conflict. The Arctic Circle happens to have all these ingredients, potentially being an explosive cocktail in the near future, leading to rivalry between nations. Let’s begin with the nations claiming territorial legitimacy in this untapped resource rich part of the world. So far it has been established that there are 8 Arctic coastal states: Canada, Norway, Russia, Denmark (via Greenland), Iceland, Sweden, Finland and the U.S. However, apart from the untapped resources in the Arctic Circle, we have a brand new commercial route emerging because of the melting of the