"How The World Sees Russia" Issue #47: 03/16/2019 From the Publisher: We are back... After a brief break last weekend, we bring you the latest on Russia from around the world. Estonia’s foreign intelligence service published its annual report, where it describes its concerns with Russia’s ongoing aggression towards neighboring former Soviet-block states. Particularly, mentioning its use of civilian ships to carry out espionage activities. Norway is getting a little worried about Russia. This is normal, considering they both share a border, and participate in military drills near each other. Lately, Russia stands accused of jamming Norwegian radar stations. Moscow can be very aggressive in its use of cyber-warfare, and this is an example of it. As stated in a prior issue , the Kremlin is working towards isolating its internet from the rest of the world. It is said to be doing this officially because of national security threats. However, critics believe that this is actually being done by the Kremlin to control domestic dissent online. We delve deeper into this developing story, and assess the situation. Finally, Russia has confirmed that it will honor the OPEC+ deal. The deal is set to expire in June. However, we believe Russia is likely to perhaps extend the pact come June. The Russian economy cannot take the shock of a weak oil market, and this pact as it stands is beneficial to it. -Rossiya Scan Is Russia Using Civilian Ships to Spy? Yes...Says Estonia The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service has issued a warning in a new report regarding Russia. The notice is that Moscow is likely to be using civilian vessels to spy on NATO members. Russian research ships were reported to have been patrolling areas where NATO drills are being carried out. “Attempts to enter foreign territorial waters without permission, under the pretext of needing shelter from storm or technical repairs, are becoming more and more frequent,” said the Estonian agency in their report. “This kind of behavior clearly stands out in comparison with other ordinary civilian vessels.” Estonia like all the Baltic states has a substantial ethnically Russian population. In 2011, it was estimated that close to 40 percent of the population of its capital Tallin was ethnically Russian. A number closer to 50 percent was also estimated to consider Russian as their mother tongue. With Russia using the claim of being the protector of Russian minorities in former Soviet-states. A title that has led it to carrying out conventional and asymmetric military operations in response to this stated mission (e.g. Ukraine), one can easily understand why a country like Estonia is worried about a potential attack from Moscow. Especially, when it comes to the use of civilian trade and relations to hinder its security apparatus. Something that it is particularly vulnerable based on the origins of a significant portion of its population. Pro-Moscow agents can hide in plain sight in Estonia plus instigate vulnerable groups from this segment of the population under the right conditions. “The main external security threat for Estonia arises from Russia’s behavior, which undermines the international order,” said the report. “Russia conducts its foreign policy by demonstrating its military force, by using the dependence of other states on Russia’s energy carriers and by conducting cyber-attacks and influence operations using false information and other ‘soft’ tools.” The Estonian intelligence service admits that the likelihood of an attack by Russia is not imminent. NATO firepower is after all something that Russia does not want to face. The possibility does exist though, and should not be “excluded” warned the report. The intelligence report does claim that Russia is willing to risk a large-scale war with NATO if its immediate neighbors, such as Belarus , are seen as shifting to the West. In other words, if they are seen as trying to pull a Ukraine or Georgia. Should the Baltic states be worried? They should not be to the extent of Ukraine or Georgia. As NATO and EU members they have a level of protection that will keep Russia away unless a serious worse case scenario occurs. That being said, they need to keep their eyes open, and be ready for anything. Especially in regards to asymmetric warfare, as Estonia itself was said to be the target of Russia’s most ambitious cyber-attack. Read more: "Estonian Intelligence Flags Russian Civilian Vessels As Would-Be Spy Ships," by Sebastien Sprenger for Defense News. "Estonia's Foreign Intelligence: Russia The Main External Threat," by Sten Hankewitz for Estonian World. "Foreign Intelligence Service: Russia Remains Military Threat To Estonia," by ERR.EE staff. ​ Is Russia Giving Norway The Jitters? “Hacking involves a different way of looking at problems that no one's thought of” – Walter O’Brien, Irish Businessman Russia is becoming feistier with time; this can be felt across the world, but the close you are to Russia the more you feel the heat. We have already discussed the long history of animosity existing between Russia and the Nordics (Finland, Sweden, Norway), even dug into the feeling of alert Russia has recently instilled in Sweden , now Norway is troubled with certain actions perpetrated by the Slavic nation. These quarrels go back since the beginning of times, when the Vikings viewed pillaging Russia as a fun and lucrative sport to practice. With time, during the course of the centuries Russia consolidated itself unifying the nation from Vladivostok to the doorsteps of Finland, which borders with Norway in the northern tip of the nation. Russia is not the kind of neighbor with whom you want to have a beef with. Russian superior hacking abilities are a force to be reckoned with, a force several nations have had to bear and few have managed to quash. These actions, as we have highlighted in the past have altered many aspects of modern warfare and have proven the dangers of external threats crippling electronically military and civilian infrastructure with a computers. The Trident Juncture joint exercises in the high north with NATO held in October to November 2018, were carried to Russia’s resentment. NATO is the never ending threat posed by the West upon Russia, and it seems they have a habit of displaying their prowess near Russian borders. Furthermore, these exercises were especially sensitive because the region is close to the heavily fortified military installations on the Kola Peninsula, which houses Russia’s Northern Fleet and elite Arctic land, air and naval forces. For every action there is a reaction, and the aftermath of this challenging display of might has led to several radar jams in Norwegian military facilities illustrating their weaknesses if ever confronted with a Russian offensive. Moreover, most recently in February 2018, 11 Russian Su-24 aircraft flying in an attack formation performed a “mock strike” on the NIS-operated Arctic radar station at Vardø. All in all Russia is defending its position and as usual not pulling back to a Western provocation, attacking the weakest links and those which are closest to its borders. Russia is even contemplating the idea of carrying out missile tests, marking their territory which could lead to further military escalation in the near future. Russia has vast military resources ( even if certain aspects of their armed forces are decaying or weak ), the Russian army is seasoned in military combat unlike their Nordic neighbors and most importantly they are not scared to strike, especially given western reaction to acts of aggression which have been met with economic sanctions rather than military force. Read more: “Norway Accuses Russia of Jamming Its Military Systems,” by Gerard O’Dwyer for Defense News. “Russia Stages Mock Attack on Norwegian Radar Station, Jams GPS,” by Jamie Seidel for News. “Russia Threatens to Respond to NATO Norway Exercises With Missile Tests” by Japan Times staff. “Nearly a Dozen Russian Jets Practiced an Attack on a Norwegian Radar Base,” by Kyle Mizokami for Popular Mechanics. 'Big Brother' Is Getting Ready To Watch Russia... “Nationalism is power hunger tempered by self deception” – George Orwell, British Author In this issue we will correlate George Orwell’s dystopia 1984, to what China has already accomplished and what Russia is attempting to put in action within its borders. At least that’s what we believe. The internet has democratized information, factual and fake news alike. Moreover, the right information in the correct hands, methodically disseminated can spark that one event or movement, which could turn into an catalyst for something greater. Fake news has the same power as factual ones. In order to mitigate this hazard, Russia or namely Russian President Vladimir Putin, who as we have highlighted in previous issues is close to an all time low in popularity , wants to fence Russian internet routing it through Russian servers, creating firewalls similar to the ones in China. In China, they have a social credit system that depending on your actions and/or infractions you get a score as a citizen. Anything as banal as spending frivolously (as well as more serious offenses) influence your social score. Having a low or “not qualified” social score could lead to the forbidding of a plane ticket purchase, traveling train lines or even ban you from buying property. This system will be fully operational by 2020 as its currently in pilot mode. Now that we have given you a glance of what is happening today in China, a model which has been brewing since 2014, we want to delve into the implications and intentions of Russia isolating and controlling its internet traffic. Most media channels are controlled by the government (TV, Newspapers etc…). However, some channels are open such as Facebook, Google and YouTube. The latter, is a serious concern to the