Can Russia Outflank the U.S. in the Americas?
With the general perspective of Russian interests in the region offered in the aforementioned extract of our newsletter, we are going to brief you on what’s going on and where it’s happening. To better understand the implications, and strategic advantages that Russia is trying to convey in Latin America.
Cuba and Russia have had long lasting ties since the Soviets placed nuclear missiles in the island facing the USA in the 1960’s, almost triggering a nuclear war. In 2016 when U.S. President Barack Obama visited Cuba, being the first since U.S President Calvin Coolidge in 1928, we saw a new dawn for Cuban-American relations. Unfortunately, U.S President Donald Trump stopped all progress to lift sanctions, and improve relations between the two countries. Thus, Russia has picked up the pieces of this failed rapprochement to once again forge a stronger relationship with Cuba.
Russia has historically done a lot for Cuba, always being a support to the regime. For example, Russia recently alleviated the Cuban government of almost $30 billions of Cold War debt (this is not news, but a reminder of how Russia slowly builds trust once again with its old friends), currently the country is in dire need for foreign investment and the Russian government has invested billions in over 50 infrastructure projects, most importantly Rosneft has resumed shipping Oil to Cuba following Venezuela’s decline in oil production. The closest distance between Cuba and Florida is 103 miles, you can easily imagine the strategic implications this alliance has.
Venezuela has vast metal and mineral resources, besides being the country with the largest oil reserves. It is also an opportunity to show the West that Russia can meddle in the western “sphere” of influence.
Let us not forget Venezuela, which was Latin America’s wealthiest and most stable democracy for most of the 20th century, was the U.S’s closest ally in the region. Venezuela and U.S. not only had strong commercial relations, but also political. Both countries, for example, worked together to overthrow Guatemalan president Jacobo Arbenz. They also again worked together to incentivize the assassination of Dominican Republic’s authoritarian leader, Rafael Trujillo. Throughout the 20th century, Venezuela was home to the most anti-Castro governments outside of the U.S., as well as the most powerful intelligence agency in the Caribbean. Thus, U.S. President John F. Kennedy had a direct line of communication with Venezuelan President Romulo Betancourt throughout the Cuban missile crisis. The Venezuelan Navy was also one of just two Latin American navies (the other being Argentina) to assist the U.S. with their naval blockade of Cuba during the crisis. Further fomenting a key-defense partnership that would last decades, and provided Venezuela with all sorts of modern weaponry that the U.S. refused to provide to other Latin American nations, including several F-16 fighter jets . Something that allowed Venezuela to have a stronger conventional strike capability over its neighbors.
All of the above though ended with the election of Hugo Chavez in 1999. The latter autocrat destroyed his thriving nation, and in the process also smashed the Venezuela-U.S. alliance that was beneficial to both parties involved. Further fomenting new alliances to substitute the former, such as with Russia, China, Cuba and Iran. Alliances that have yet to yield any positive domestic, or international, results for Venezuela.
Russia has committed more than $13.5 billion dollars to Venezuela since 2013. Furthermore, in 2018 a project from the past, to build the biggest Kalashnikov factory outside Russia in Venezuela found traction again. This would push Venezuela further away from the United States, a former ally that Washington D.C. wants to have back on its side.
Nicaragua has been having economic and political troubles this year as a result of the mismanagement of autocrat Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega. The small Central American country has also felt the pain of diminishing oil and economic aid from Venezuela. The latter was a cushion that permitted Ortega to cover his governments poor economic performance. The situation has reached such a dire point that a wave of deadly protests exploded several months ago against the autocrat. Protests that have left over 400 people dead. The situation remains tense, and there is currently no end in sight to the conflict.
Nicaragua is closely positioned geographically to the U.S, and also houses a large secretive Russian-managed satellite compound at the edge of the Nejapa lagoon. They also have a military training centre, “Marshall Gregory Zhukov,” located in the headquarters of Nicaraguan army. These two locations could be used as a pivot-points by Russia in the future, who since the 1980’s has had close ties, and supported the controversial Ortega.
Mexico is another place where Russia is making moves. The Kremlin allegedly meddled in the Mexican election via subversion and disinformation in favor of the winner, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. The U.S borders Mexico, and with Trumps victory and tensions growing between the two countries Russia could be an interesting option to diversify risk from the U.S in the future.
The U.S is too thinly spread, and being very ineffective in optimizing resources to achieve its external political goals. None of us knows the real relationship between Putin and Trump. All in all, we believe that U.S sees China as its great threat, and is focusing its energy in resources to this part of the world. Leaving a huge gap in its backyard that Russia will gladly fill, and that is aligned with its global foreign policy objectives.
That being said, Russia still has to prove itself.
U.S. allies in Latin America have fared much better politically and economically than any that have been backed by Russia, or its predecessor. The Kremlin has chosen to ally itself with regimes that are widely criticized and immoral. Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua currently have governments that are completely inept in both public administration and foreign policy. Regimes that over time will cease to exist, and that Russia will be associated with in a negative form. This is something that would effectively lead to the exiling of Russia from the America’s for a long time.
Therefore, if Russia truly wants to have a presence in Latin America it must employ the pragmatic approach that it has successfully pursued in the Middle East, and is already starting to carryout successfully in the South China sea.
Read more:
"Russian Interests in Venezuela: A New Cold War?" by Diana Villiers Negroponte for the Americas Quarterly.
"We Left a Void in Cuba, Now Our Adversaries are Filling it In," by the American Security Project.
"Forget Venezuela, Russia is Looking to Nicaragua," by W. Alejandro Sanchez for National Interest.
"Russian Bots Accused of Meddling in Mexico's Election," by Christopher Woody for Business Insider.
"Conflictos en El Caribe: Eisenhower y Perez Jimenez, Historia de Cooperacion y Enfrentamiento," by Gustavo Enrique Salcedo Avila for Instituto de Estudios Politicos, Universidad Central de Venezuela. (In Spanish)
