"How The World Sees Russia"

Issue #50: 04/06/2019

From the Publisher:

This week’s issue is a special one. It is in fact our last issue as we (the three founders and writers of this newsletter) have decided to cease publishing this letter in order to rebrand. But before explaining why we are doing this after #50, we would like to give you our standard introductory rundown of the issue.

How long can Russia continue its geopolitical success spree in Africa? Its controversial playbook continues to yield results. We look again at some of the African countries where it has found success and established itself as an influential player. Also, contemplate what it would take for its playbook to become obsolete.

Turkey has opted to move forward with its decision to purchase the Russian-made S-400 missile system. Such a move is bound to irritate the U.S and other fellow NATO members. Ankara was warned by Washington D.C about the consequences it could face if it went ahead with the purchase. This decision by Turkey, if carried out in action, is going to be major blow to NATO. In other words, a major win for Russia, if it all goes through.

Russia has developed a new tank: the T-14. This new weapon of war has caused a lot of chatter in defense circles. There is a lot of exciting technology attached to it. However, it remains untested and as a result many have doubts over its capabilities.  We look into some of the pros and cons of this tank and provide a general overview of this story.

Rosneft has announced an ambition plan to start pumping oil from the Arctic. The plan will take place over the next 5 years. There is a lot moving parts to this operation and many things have to go right for it to smoothly happen. We share the latest on this story in what is becoming an important geopolitical flashpoint.

Finally, as stated in the beginning of this letter,  this issue is our last. Despite our ongoing growth, healthy open rates, plus the incredible amount of fun we have had putting these small issues together  on a weekly basis, we have decided to stop publishing this letter after issue #50.

This of course is not a permanent goodbye.

The plan is to create a new publication and rebrand our product offering. Through Rossiya Scan we have learned a lot about what works and what doesn’t. We also need some time to plan properly our next publication. Considering all three members of Rossiya Scan are employed full-time in highly demanding jobs. Therefore, if you have enjoyed our work we would like to ask you to please remain subscribed, as we will send you a message once our future project is up and running. Perhaps one day we will revive Rossiya Scan. However, for now we believe it to be the perfect time to expand our geographical horizons and create a more global publication. One that uses the same voice and distinct realpolitik analysis we have created over the past 50 issues.

Thank you for all the time you have dedicated to us throughout 2018 and 2019. We will be in touch again over the course of the year.

-Rossiya Scan

How Long Can Russia Maintain Its Edge In Africa?

In Rossiya Scan, we have been following Russia’s moves throughout the African continent for some time. Placing a particular emphasis on the Central African Republic (CAR), which is a microcosm of their strong playbook in the region. One that combines the provision  of military assistance in exchange for mineral rights extractions, and accommodating market entry conditions.  Whose backbone is a moral flexibility that provides security aid for economic and geopolitical purposes. An exchange that does not require any promises of democratic reform or human rights. Of course, one can easily find examples of where the West turns a blind eye to authoritarian governments in the name of commerce or politics. However, the West unlike Russia does choose on more occasions to make such requests from world despots. At times, it even goes to head to head with them.

In CAR, Russia has been consolidating its presence with the help of military contractors from the Wagner group. The latter is a Moscow-based private security company with strong Kremlin ties. The consolidation has been so successful in CAR that Valery Zhakarov, a Russian antional, has been reported to have been named national security advisor to President Faustin-Archange Touadera. It has also been widely reported that the CAR government is selling mining rights for diamonds and gold to Moscow in exchange for weapons and military trainers at a fraction of their price.

Touadera’s government was said to be fighting for its life prior to Russia's arrival.  The U.S and France appeared to have lost the interest in the region, as their geopolitical focus shifted to other parts of the continent or world. Russia arrived, and provided an element of security that allowed Touadera’s government to maintain a stronger degree of control.  CAR is still plagued by countless of powerful rebel factions that control several portions of the country.

CAR was also the place where three Russian journalists investigating the Wagner group were killed. Russia and the government of Touadera have said that this was not a targeted assassination as many claim. Instead, insisting that it was the result of an armed robbery. This incident put Russia’s moves in the African continent on the spotlight, and many predicted that the battle for Africa was likely to heat amongst the world's powers.

So far this appears to be the case, with Russia still leading the charge with its lean strategy of using PMCs as parallel diplomats, but also through government-to-government defense trade. Russia is doing this that only way it can, as it does not have the economic muscle to compete with the U.S or China in terms of economic aid.

In Libya, Russia has so far chosen to back many sides in this conflict, although showing the most preference for Libyan military leader Khalifa Haftar. The latter strongman controls most of the oil reserves in the east of Libya. Like in CAR, Moscow was able to enter and cut deals with powerful groups in the war-torn country in exchange for political clout, as well as oil rights promises once the West backed out of the area. The Libyan cities of Tobruk and Benghazi are said to already have bases from the Wagner group operating.

Haftar is currently moving his troops towards the Libyan capital of Tripoli. This is where the international recognized Libyan government holds power. Russia insists that it is not involved with this move, or supports it.  

"We are closely following the situation in Libya,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov to reporters, according to various news agencies. “Of course we consider that the most important thing is that (military) operations there do not lead to bloodshed. The situation should be resolved peacefully.”

Should Haftar achieve a takeover or merely consolidate his position, it will likely be a big win for Russia.  As it has shown a certain degree of preferential treatment towards the leader. Of course, the roads towards stability in Libya is a long one. Russia, as said before, has other parties in the conflict that it is directly dealing with.A reality that makes it one of the strongest outside players in this ongoing war zone. Therefore, Russia is likely to come out ahead for the simple reason that it is has workable relationships with the most serious of contenders.

Other places we have looked at in terms of Russia’s growing influence in Africa include Rwanda, Eritrea and Egypt. These have been carried out on a more direct government to government basis though. With weapons purchases taking place, or with actual Russian military cooperation. Instead of private contractors, or alleged front companies acting on behalf of the Kremlin.

Can Russia maintain its edge in Africa though?

This really does depend on a few things.

Firstly, if it manages to better its economic condition at home. As stated in prior issues, the Russian people and even the military are not entirely happy. Economic hardship is taking its toll, and foreign military adventures are losing their zest or popularity in the minds of the Russian people. If this persists, Russia will have to roll back on its strategy, and in a sense weaken it. Moscow might also lose its edge if the West changes its approach and provides a proper substitute to the security package Moscow has been offering in Africa. That being said, if the West fails to create a competing defense product to offer autocratic or weak governments, it will allow Russia to continue prevailing.

Read more: 

"Russia's Military Mission Creep Advances To A New Front," by Eric Schmitt for the New York Times. 

"U.S General Troubled By Russian Mercenaries in Africa," by Richard Sisk for Military.com. 

"Russia Pushes Defence Ties In Africa To Compete With Major Powers," by Christpher Mohr for the Daily Brief. 

"Russia Denies Supporting Khalifa Haftar And His Forces In Libya," by Eric Oteng for Africa News. 

Turkey Moves Forward With S-400 System...

“Divide et Impera” – Julius Cesar, Roman Emperor and General

In Rossiya Scan we have discussed several times the development of the SAM (surface to air missile) S-400 defense system, as well as Russia’s animosity to NATO. This week we have seen Russia claiming territory in Turkey (who also happens to be a major Middle Eastern player), and critical NATO “ally”. Thus, killing two birds with one stone. On one hand deploying its flagship defense system in Turkey, whilst simultaneously causing mischief within the NATO alliance.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Wednesday, "The S-400 deal is a done deal and we will not step back from this."

This news has provoked an immediate reaction from the U.S government, which under U.S President Donald Trump is touchy and has been separately causing tension within the NATO membership with its demands. Pressuring other members to increase their military spending, and to be more aligned with the U.S’s military contribution.

"Turkey must choose…does it want to remain a critical partner in the most successful military alliance in the history of the world, or does it want to risk the security of that partnership by making such reckless decisions that undermine our alliance?" said U.S Vice President Mike Pence in a NATO anniversary event.

The U.S is imposing its conditions (as usual), but Turkey is not retracting from the S-400 deal,  while Russia sits back and watches how all this unravels. Furthermore, a portion of the F-35 was going to be manufactured in Turkey, following Turkey’s deal it seems this will no longer happen, or at least that’s what the U.S has voiced. They are concerned that in this operational process, the Turks may share intel on the F-35, revealing to the Russians how to more effectively shoot them down with the S-400.

Obviously, the Turks claim that one thing doesn’t lead to another and that separate work tasks can be protected with a Chinese wall type approach. That being said, politicians always promise the world,  but more often end up practicing deceit.

One last issue here is the ongoing loss of U.S military hegemony in Turkey. As we discussed previously the Patriot Missile has been the mainstream SAM defense system across the world, although the Turks have never managed to integrate this system with the indigenous Turkish receptors. Despite this, other nations such as Germany and U.S have deployed and then removed their Patriot systems from Turkish soil.

All in all, this is a win for Russia. The Russians continue to increase their market share in military equipment, and cause disarray within NATO. They have also weakened the NATO alliance by consolidating their relationship with Turkey. All of this without shooting a single bullet.

Read more:

“No Turning Back From Russia S-400 Deal – Turkey,” by TRTWorld staff.

“US Warns Turkey Over Russian S-400 Missile System Deal,” by BBC staff.

“Pentagon Warns of ‘Grave Consequences’ Should Turkey Buy Russian Missile System,” by Aaron Mehta for Defense News.

“Why did Turkey Choose the S-400?” by Debalina Ghoshal for Defenceiq.

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