Rossiya Scan: Africa, Polish Fears and an Oligarch "Exodus"?

"How The World Sees Russia" Issue #10: 02/06/2018 From the Publisher: This week we visit some of the most important and pertinent topics of Russia abroad. To start off we look at Russia’s new outpost of influence in Africa. Little has been written about Russian affairs in Africa. Perhaps, because they have yet to show a clear intention of wanting to have influence in the continent. However, now we have evidence that this is changing, and that Western powers have been to slow to respond to it. The New Cold War experienced another round of “sabre-rattling” in eastern Europe. This time, with Poland asking the U.S. to build a military base within its borders. The move was seen by Russia as aggressive, which essentially led to a discussion of a potential Russian base in Belarus, if the latter were to happen. Israel and Russia have agreed and Iran is to be leave southern Syria. Russia again showed through action that they are now the power-broker of the Middle-East. Coming out ahead of the U.S and European powers, whose influence has been waning for some time. Finally, we take a look at the ongoing fallout from the Skripal controversy. The U.K. is essentially turning its back on the Russian oligarchs, despite being “in love” with them for decades. -Rossiya Scan Russia is Winning in the Heart of Africa Russia has been quietly expanding its influence in the Central Africa Republic, and western powers have again been caught flatfooted. Since 2013, the Central African Republic has been in a serious state of conflict. During this time, a Muslim coalition of rebels overthrew the government, and almost immediately, Christian militias fought back. France sent troops, brought some order, and eventually handed power to a United Nations peacekeeping force. In 2016, Faustin-Archange Touadera was elected president, a brief calm was experienced. However, war broke out again shortly after, and continued to get more intense. Approximately 700,000 people have become refugees. Toudera’s government has power of the capital-Bangui, while various rebel groups share control 80 percent of the country. The latter are areas filled with resources, such as diamonds and gold. With this mess of s situation, the U.N. forces are essentially outgunned, and the West appears to have forgotten about the Central African Republic. The weak-Bangui government has thus looked elsewhere for help, and found it in Russia. Late 2017, Russia got an exemption to the current U.N. arms embargo on the Central African Republic. It sent a shipment of weapons early this year, as well as 175 advisors to train a couple of government battalions.Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group are also reported to be working in the Central African Republic. Touadera’s presidential guard is rumored to have Russian’s, and his cadre now includes Russian security advisors. It remains unclear whether this Russian incursion will prove to be a complete success for Moscow. According to analysts, it is too soon to tell whether this cooperation will actually lead to tangible long-term bilateral agreements, or in lucrative joint precious metals agreements between both nations. For now, Russia is the clear power behind Toudera’s government, and no one can really blame Toudera for this. The West, which usually in Africa means France and the United States, have forgotten about him. The results of Russian help are already being felt positively around the capital. "Russia delivers, we talk,” said an unnamed senior Bangui-based diplomat, according to the Washington Post. “That's the impression. And it's not wrong." Let us not forget, Russian assistance has worked for another regime that is completely encircled by non-state paramilitary armies, as well as religiously affiliated terror organizations. In fact, it has worked so well that Syrian President Baschar al-Assad’s government has the upper hand now in his war-torn nation. Russia is sending the signal to all those who have been helped, and been abandoned by the West, that they are ready to step in. Of course, this aid is likely to be extended for some sort of deal, whether it be precious metals or whatever the country can offer. That being said, it is aid that these governments need for survival. “Your friends are making lots of nice promises to you, but they never deliver,” said Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to Former Georgian president Micheil Saakaschwili in an interview with the BBC. “I don’t promise you anything nice, but I deliver.” Russia delivers. That’s a statement of fact, and they do not back out. This is a real option for any leader who finds themselves alone, and with something to offer. Russia understands this and is acting with a coherent foreign policy that is out-flanking the West in these matters. "This could come down to a test of, really, traditional Western resolve, power and influence," said the unnamed diplomat. "If we cede C.A.R., we're ceding Africa." The diplomat might have a point. The Central African Republic is well situated as a potential hub for Africa-related operations, if Russia finds itself in need or in search of such an outpost. Also, because it will be an example of what Russia is willing to do for all troubled African leaders. The latter are not necessarily a rare bunch, so the opportunity is huge. Read more: "There’s a new battle for influence in Central Africa, and Russia appears to be winning," by Cassandra Vinograd for the Washington Post. "Why is Russia Cossiying Up to the CAR?," by the BBC. (VIDEO) Poland is Afraid of Russia The former Warsaw-pact participant, and now full-fledged EU and NATO member, Poland, is willing to put $2-billion of its own to assist the U.S in establishing a Military-base in their country. Why? The Polish government is afraid of, “increasing Russian Interference.” “Aggressive Russian actions — as seen in Georgia in 2008 and most recently in Ukraine in 2014 to the present — is destructive for international stability and international legal principles,” wrote the Polish Ministry of Defence in the paper, where they outline the proposal of the base. “Russia is seeking to strengthen its political and economic relations with key European countries at the expense of US national interests.” The paper concludes that such a base would provide the United States with more flexibility to confront these Russian threats. Poland recently signed the purchase of the U.S-made Patriot Missile Defence system for almost $4.8 billion. The move has angered Russia which qualified such actions as “mythical” threats dreamed up by Washington to surround Russia. As a result of this invitation by Poland, Russia’s most loyal European-based ally, Belarus has stated that they could entertain the possibility of allowing a Russian base within their territory. “We are not going to deploy right now new military bases” said Vladimir Makei, Foreign Minister of Belarus while on a visit to Brussels, according to Euronews. “But looking to the future, we should take into account the future steps which will be taken by our neighbors.” Some analysts believe that it is only logical for the U.S. to move its bases from Germany to Poland and the Baltic states. These bases were placed in Germany because at the time it was in the frontline of eastern aggression. Now, Germany has several buffer states between them and an expansionist Russia, they argue. “Germans feel safe, and they’re among the least inclined to defend a NATO ally against a Russian attack,” said, a Russian Berlin-based journalist in an article for Bloomberg. “Deploying U.S. troops in Poland would serve a strategic purpose.” That being said, Russia is unlikely to attack a NATO member. Such an attack, would be suicide for itself, and the world as we know it. So, the argument for a base in Poland or the Baltics makes little sense, if the NATO alliance operates as it is supposed to. U.S troops and other NATO forces are also present in Poland on a rotational basis. Hence, any base would simply escalate things, and not necessarily cause a deterrent for either side. Read more: "Eyeing possible Polish U.S. base, Belarus says no Russian base, for now," by Alistair Macdonald for Reuters. "The U.S. Should Move Troops From Germany to Poland," by Leonid Bershidsky for Bloomberg. "Poland’s €1.7 billion bid for permanent US base to combat ‘Russian interference’," by Chris Harris for Euronews. Russia and Israel Agree on Iran Pull-Out from Syria So, it happened. More or less as we predicted in Issue #8. Iran is being muscled out of Syria (at least partially) by Russia. The latter being the only party capable of pressuring them into doing so. The Israeli paper Haaretz and London-based Saudi paper Asharq al-Awsat, reported yesterday that both Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had reached an agreement regarding this matter. Both sides agreed that it was necessary to remove Iran’s forces from southern Syria. Also, to allow Israel to attack targets that it deemed a threat against its national security, as long as the Iranian sites were not tied to the protection of Syrian President Baschar –al-Assad. The bottom line, is that Iran is getting in the way of Russia’s main aim, which is to prop-up their Syrian ally and keep the U.S. far away from the conflict. The weak and failed attack by Iranian forces on Israel was beyond thoughtless. It also has led the Islamic republic to yet another embarrassment. The fact they do not call the shots in Syria, and that their moves within the conflict are effectively at the mercy of two non-Islamic nations with obviously more influence on the Middle-East. Iran’s role as so-called regional power, is obviously at an all-time low. “Waning of Iranian influence only helps bring us closer to a political solution to resolve the conflict," said an unnamed Syrian opposition leader, according

"How The World Sees Russia"

Issue #10: 02/06/2018

From the Publisher:

This week we visit some of the most important and pertinent topics of Russia abroad.

To start off we look at Russia’s new outpost of influence in Africa. Little has been written about Russian affairs in Africa. Perhaps, because they have yet to show a clear intention of wanting to have influence in the continent. However, now we have evidence that this is changing, and that Western powers have been to slow to respond to it.

The New Cold War experienced another round of “sabre-rattling” in eastern Europe. This time, with Poland asking the U.S. to build a military base within its borders. The move was seen by Russia as aggressive, which essentially led to a discussion of a potential Russian base in Belarus, if the latter were to happen.

Israel and Russia have agreed and Iran is to be leave southern Syria. Russia again showed through action that they are now the power-broker of the Middle-East. Coming out ahead of the U.S and European powers, whose influence has been waning for some time.

Finally, we take a look at the ongoing fallout from the Skripal controversy. The U.K. is essentially turning its back on the Russian oligarchs, despite being “in love” with them for decades.

-Rossiya Scan

Russia is Winning in the Heart of Africa

Russia has been quietly expanding its influence in the Central Africa Republic, and western powers have again been caught flatfooted.

Since 2013, the Central African Republic has been in a serious state of conflict. During this time, a Muslim coalition of rebels overthrew the government, and almost immediately, Christian militias fought back. France sent troops, brought some order, and eventually handed power to a United Nations peacekeeping force.

In 2016, Faustin-Archange Touadera was elected president, a brief calm was experienced. However, war broke out again shortly after, and continued to get more intense. Approximately 700,000 people have become refugees. Toudera’s government has power of the capital-Bangui, while various rebel groups share control 80 percent of the country. The latter are areas filled with resources, such as diamonds and gold.

With this mess of s situation, the U.N. forces are essentially outgunned, and the West appears to have forgotten about the Central African Republic. The weak-Bangui government has thus looked elsewhere for help, and found it in Russia.

Late 2017, Russia got an exemption to the current U.N. arms embargo on the Central African Republic. It sent a shipment of weapons early this year, as well as 175 advisors to train a couple of government battalions.Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group are also reported to be working in the Central African Republic. Touadera’s presidential guard is rumored to have Russian’s, and his cadre now includes Russian security advisors.

It remains unclear whether this Russian incursion will prove to be a complete success for Moscow. According to analysts, it is too soon to tell whether this cooperation will actually lead to tangible long-term bilateral agreements, or in lucrative joint precious metals agreements between both nations.

For now, Russia is the clear power behind Toudera’s government, and no one can really blame Toudera for this. The West, which usually in Africa means France and the United States, have forgotten about him. The results of Russian help are already being felt positively around the capital.

"Russia delivers, we talk,” said an unnamed senior Bangui-based diplomat, according to the Washington Post. “That's the impression. And it's not wrong."

Let us not forget, Russian assistance has worked for another regime that is completely encircled by non-state paramilitary armies, as well as religiously affiliated terror organizations. In fact, it has worked so well that Syrian President Baschar al-Assad’s government has the upper hand now in his war-torn nation.

Russia is sending the signal to all those who have been helped, and been abandoned by the West, that they are ready to step in. Of course, this aid is likely to be extended for some sort of deal, whether it be precious metals or whatever the country can offer. That being said, it is aid that these governments need for survival.

“Your friends are making lots of nice promises to you, but they never deliver,” said Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to Former Georgian president Micheil Saakaschwili in an interview with the BBC. “I don’t promise you anything nice, but I deliver.”

Russia delivers. That’s a statement of fact, and they do not back out. This is a real option for any leader who finds themselves alone, and with something to offer. Russia understands this and is acting with a coherent foreign policy that is out-flanking the West in these matters.

"This could come down to a test of, really, traditional Western resolve, power and influence," said the unnamed diplomat. "If we cede C.A.R., we're ceding Africa."

The diplomat might have a point.

The Central African Republic is well situated as a potential hub for Africa-related operations, if Russia finds itself in need or in search of such an outpost. Also, because it will be an example of what Russia is willing to do for all troubled African leaders. The latter are not necessarily a rare bunch, so the opportunity is huge.

"Why is Russia Cossiying Up to the CAR?," by the BBC. (VIDEO)

Poland is Afraid of Russia

The former Warsaw-pact participant, and now full-fledged EU and NATO member, Poland, is willing to put $2-billion of its own to assist the U.S in establishing a Military-base in their country.

Why?

The Polish government is afraid of, “increasing Russian Interference.”

“Aggressive Russian actions — as seen in Georgia in 2008 and most recently in Ukraine in 2014 to the present — is destructive for international stability and international legal principles,” wrote the Polish Ministry of Defence in the paper, where they outline the proposal of the base. “Russia is seeking to strengthen its political and economic relations with key European countries at the expense of US national interests.”

The paper concludes that such a base would provide the United States with more flexibility to confront these Russian threats. Poland recently signed the purchase of the U.S-made Patriot Missile Defence system for almost $4.8 billion. The move has angered Russia which qualified such actions as “mythical” threats dreamed up by Washington to surround Russia.

As a result of this invitation by Poland, Russia’s most loyal European-based ally, Belarus has stated that they could entertain the possibility of allowing a Russian base within their territory.

“We are not going to deploy right now new military bases” said Vladimir Makei, Foreign Minister of Belarus while on a visit to Brussels, according to Euronews. “But looking to the future, we should take into account the future steps which will be taken by our neighbors.”

Some analysts believe that it is only logical for the U.S. to move its bases from Germany to Poland and the Baltic states. These bases were placed in Germany because at the time it was in the frontline of eastern aggression. Now, Germany has several buffer states between them and an expansionist Russia, they argue.

“Germans feel safe, and they’re among the least inclined to defend a NATO ally against a Russian attack,” said, a Russian Berlin-based journalist in an article for Bloomberg. “Deploying U.S. troops in Poland would serve a strategic purpose.”

That being said, Russia is unlikely to attack a NATO member. Such an attack, would be suicide for itself, and the world as we know it. So, the argument for a base in Poland or the Baltics makes little sense, if the NATO alliance operates as it is supposed to. U.S troops and other NATO forces are also present in Poland on a rotational basis. Hence, any base would simply escalate things, and not necessarily cause a deterrent for either side.

"The U.S. Should Move Troops From Germany to Poland," by Leonid Bershidsky for Bloomberg.

"Poland’s €1.7 billion bid for permanent US base to combat ‘Russian interference’," by Chris Harris for Euronews.

Russia and Israel Agree on Iran Pull-Out from Syria

So, it happened.

More or less as we predicted in Issue #8.

Iran is being muscled out of Syria (at least partially) by Russia. The latter being the only party capable of pressuring them into doing so.

The Israeli paper Haaretz and London-based Saudi paper Asharq al-Awsat, reported yesterday that both Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had reached an agreement regarding this matter.

Both sides agreed that it was necessary to remove Iran’s forces from southern Syria. Also, to allow Israel to attack targets that it deemed a threat against its national security, as long as the Iranian sites were not tied to the protection of Syrian President Baschar –al-Assad.

The bottom line, is that Iran is getting in the way of Russia’s main aim, which is to prop-up their Syrian ally and keep the U.S. far away from the conflict. The weak and failed attack by Iranian forces on Israel was beyond thoughtless. It also has led the Islamic republic to yet another embarrassment. The fact they do not call the shots in Syria, and that their moves within the conflict are effectively at the mercy of two non-Islamic nations with obviously more influence on the Middle-East. Iran’s role as so-called regional power, is obviously at an all-time low.

“Waning of Iranian influence only helps bring us closer to a political solution to resolve the conflict," said an unnamed Syrian opposition leader, according to Haaretz. “Iran is leading a clear sectarian line devoid of any clear policy."

"Russian-Israeli Agreement to Keep Iran Away from Syria's" by Raed Jabr and Nazeer Majli for Asharq al-Awsat.

The 'Russian-Touch' of 'Death'?

Ever since the Skripal affair, where Russia allegedly attempted to murder the former double agent Sergei Skripal, relationships between the U.K and Russia have been going from bad to worse.

As we saw several issues ago, a lot of scrutiny is currently surrounding the law firm Skadden, after one of its lawyers was found guilty of lying to law enforcement in the United States pertaining to the supposed Russian interference in U.S. President Donald Trump’s election.

Now as recently as of this week, the U.K’s Foreign Affairs Committee has summoned the international law firm Linklaters to appear before it to explain the work they have been doing for Russia. On their website, the law firm states that they are one the foremost law firms for doing business in Russia.

Now, this is an interesting concept, if the U.K is now conducting an inquiry into businesses operating with Russian clients, what does that have to say about the freedom of business and capitalism that the U.K has been promoting?

For decades since the fall of the U.S.S.R the City of London has been making billions via bankers and lawyers working for the oligarchs, now however in a political stunt that work is becoming persona non-grata.

If the U.K wishes to clean up its act it should do so in regard to all parties. As a character in the James Bond movie ‘Quantum of Solace’ stated to CIA agent Felix Lighter, “If we did business with only good people, we would not have anybody left to do business with.” This statement, cynical as it is, is in a way the truth.

In this case, we are talking about lawyers whose duty it is to provide legal assistance to any party. Every person deserves a defense in a system of law, and every person deserves advice (especially if it is lucrative). As a such it seems that being associated with Russian clients is now the black mark, a pestilence that can ruin your reputation even if all you have done is to provide basic services. Interesting to see which other firms shall face the same scrutiny, and if firms associating with people from other, "grey" states will undergo the same type of witch-hunt.

"Linklaters named in Russia money probe," by John Hyde for the Law Society - Gazette.

"London law firms feel chill from icy relations with Russia," by the Financial Times.

U.K visa refused? Fine, Just Get a New Citizenship…

As we have shown last week, the U.K has delayed, if not openly refused, to renew Russian-billionaire Roman Abramovich’s visa. As the situation continued to escalate, he applied and then retracted a request for Swiss residency. As time lapsed the U.K stated that they desired to gain additional information as to the source of his pharaonic wealth, despite having profited of it over the past decades.

Now, the Kremlin connected oligarch seems to have had enough, he withdrew his visa application and flew to Israel where he was granted Israeli citizenship. Many of the Russian Oligarchs have several passports, be it Israel, Malta or Cyprus. This move clearly showed his ‘ras-le-bol’ with this highly politicized matter. In addition, since he is equally the owner of Chelsea F.C, he decided to suspend the building of the new 500-million-pound new stadium in the north of London.

As the situation with Abramovich lasted, a wave of terror, passed through the luxury services providers in London. Property brokers have stated that sales have slowed, and actually some of the Russians have begun quietly putting their properties on the market. Signaling that the U.K. was no longer the safe haven they could invest and live in quietly.

This is a loss for the U.K’s economy, for many people depend on that business, and despite what the U.K is portraying as a ‘clean hands’ operation, it is but a political coup targeted towards a specific group of people of a certain provenance. In other words, what we have here is an act of discrimination. Considering that London is still the playground of other wealthy individuals from countries with more than a checkered history.

What will the other Russian investors think in the near future? Are they to stay or will they also begin moving their fortunes to different horizons? Are people from other nationalities, whose countries have tenuous relations with the U.K to start moving out? Additionally, and more importantly for football fans, what will happen to Chelsea F.C?

The club currently owes Abramovich somewhere north of 1.5bn$, and with his new passport he can stay in the U.K for up to 6 months at a time. Of course, U.K. officials have stated that If Abramovich desires to work in the U.K. he will require a visa. Something that the U.K is unlikely to provide given the current state of affairs. Is Abramovich going to keep the club? sell it? or bankrupt it, simply out of spite?

Time will tell.

"Roman Abramovich becomes an Israeli citizen a month after his UK visa was delayed," by Raf Sanchez for Telegraph.

"Israeli citizen Abramovich’s visits to UK limited to six months," by the Financial Times.

"Estate agent to rich Russians rues London’s hostile climate," by the Financial Times.

Feel like commenting on our service or on what you just read? Want to make a suggestion? Got any complaints? Shoot us an email at [email protected]. Visit www.rossiyascan.com to signup!