"How The World Sees Russia" Issue #45: 02/23/2019 From the Publisher: Is the world about to have a new Cuban Missile Crisis? We begin this issue by looking at this claim. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday stated that Russia was willing to enter such a scenario if need be. The ending of the INF treaty was the cause of this statement. The world is a different place now with a lot more actors. The reasons for the collapse of the INF were not solely based on U.S and Russia actions. Therefore, we make the case as to why we are unlikely to see such a crisis with Russia and the U.S as the main opposing players. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany continues to be a major source of tension between the U.S and the EU. Germany appears to be determined to see it through, and it is unlikely to be stopped. The EU appears to be split, but the energy security that is going to accompany this project is likely to outweigh any concerns. No matter what happens, the EU is going to be dependent on some outside source for such energy. This project allows it to get cheap natural gas efficiently, which is a tough bargain to pass for some countries. As stated in several prior issues of Rossiya Scan, Russia currently has a very powerful position in the Middle East. They have become a broker of sorts amongst all sides despite having various conflicting allegiances. Saudi Arabia is a key player in this area and one that Russia has been able to maintain a good relationship with despite various differences. Currently, the relationship is working in great part because of an informal oil alliance. A good relationship with Riyadh is necessary for Moscow to maintain their privileged position in the area. This relationship needs to move beyond the commercial sphere for it to really solidify. Although not impossible, this is going to be difficult task for both. Geopolitically Riyadh and Moscow do not stand together in various places or issues. Also, because their successful oil alliance is already showing signs of weakness. -Rossiya Scan Is The World About To Have A New Cuban Missile Crisis? Last Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia was ready to face another Cuban Missile Crisis,if the U.S should initiate it by deploying intermediate-range missiles in Europe. “They (the tensions) are not a reason to ratchet up confrontation to the levels of the Cuban Missile Crisis in the 1960s. In any case that’s not what we want,” said Putin to Russian media. “If someone wants that, well OK they are welcome. I have set out today what that would mean. Let them count (the missile flight times).” Putin earlier claimed during his state of the union speech that Russia would respond to such missile placements in Europe by aiming hypersonic missiles at the U.S. Although Putin admitted that tensions have not yet reached the levels of the Cuban Missile Crisis, he wanted to make clear that Russia would not backdown from a similar confrontation if necessary. The Cuban Missile Crisis was a 13-day standoff between the USSR and the U.S in 1962. The USSR installed missiles in Cuba, which is located 90 miles away from the southern tip of Florida in the continental U.S. Cuban leader Fidel Castro was an ally of the USSR, who supplied him with both economic aid and military support. The standoff ended when Moscow agreed to remove the missiles, as soon as Washington promised that it would not invade Cuba and would remove its missiles in Turkey. Nuclear threats between the U.S and Russia have become a hot topic ever since talk of the potential dissolution of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty. However, such talk has become more prevalent since both sides exited the deal earlier this month. Each side accused each other of violating the terms of this agreement. The U.S announced its departure first, and Russia shortly after. The rhetoric between both nations has been sharpened, but concrete actions have yet to be taken. Are we at the dawn of a potential new Cuban Missile Criss though? Unlikely...as stated in prior issues, we at Rossiya Scan believe that China, and the fact it was not part of this treaty , led the dissolution of it. Russia and the U.S felt uncomfortable with these shackles, and were thus happy to remove them when possible. Both wanted out, and were able to do without visibly irritating China. Again, Rossiya Scan believes that Russia has similar concerns to the U.S in relation to China, despite being an ally of theirs for the moment. The INF treaty was creature of the Cold War, and not the multipolar world of today. In fact, if there is a crisis of sorts, we at Rossiya Scan believe it will most likely be with China. Read more: "Putin says Russia Would be 'OK' With Another Cuban Missile Crisis-Level Confrontation With the U.S," by Anna Hopkins for Fox News. "Putin to U.S.: I'm Ready For Another Cuban Missile-Style Crisis if You Want One," by Andrew Osborn for Reuters. "Cuban Missile Crisis #2? I'm Ready - Putin," by Reuters video staff. "Russia Ready for Cuban Missile CRISIS CONFRONTATION with U.S Claims Putin," by Clive Hammond for the Express. Berlin Wants a Pipeline With Moscow...Sorry Washington Today in Rossiya Scan, we will examine further the implications of NS2 (Nord Stream 2), an offshore natural gas pipeline from Vyborg in the Russian Federation to Greifswald in Germany that is owned and operated by Nord Stream AG, whose majority shareholder is the Russian state company Gazprom. This may seem like another gas pipeline to offer low priced Energy to the EU’s “pro-market energy rules”, however the political and economic implications are deeper than one would perceive at first. For starters, the U.S and the EU’s long-time historical alliance is at disarray in various affairs. European military spending in NATO is a primary issue, with the U.S even threatening withdrawal from the military alliance, an action which would favor Russia. It seems that both are aligning for the trade dispute with China, however are finding conflicting interests in the trade dispute within the auto industry. Last but not least, Europe is a prime market for North American Natural Gas (which is 20% more expensive then Russian gas), U.S President Donald Trump is trying to push forward North American gas in Europe, nonetheless the Germans are advancing with NS2 substantially reducing the possibility of reaching agreements with North American Natural Gas Exporters. The U.S’s interest is so firm, that they have proposed a pipeline to be built across the Atlantic to reduce European dependence on Russian gas. Russia has been on the spotlight since its “invasion” of Crimea, with various sanctions imposed by the EU, and many driven by Germany. This is tricky and incoherent, as the nation most affected by NS2 pipeline would be Ukraine. When distributing natural gas to Europe, the pipelines need to transit via different countries when heading from Russia to the old continent. This transit has a fee/toll which needs to be paid by the product originator (Russia), this fee accounts for 2% of Ukrainian GDP which is a hefty amount to not perceive any longer, especially given the precarious economic situation they are undergoing. Not to mention the pressure that Germany has wielded in its European allies to accept the development of this pipeline (especially with France, which is still reluctant), harming German image within the EU. “It’s very inward-looking, and has damaged Germany’s image in Europe,” said political scientist Stefan Meister at the German Council on Foreign Relations. Considering that half of Germany’s heating is fueled by gas, this pipeline makes a strong case to Germans interest. Once again, Russia has done it though. Using diplomacy it has managed to strike a blow to Ukraine, which is still suffering the consequences from the annexation of Crimea plus the ongoing war with alleged Russian backed separatists. Simultaneously dividing its neighbors, from the helm, whilst making them more dependent on Russia. Like it or not, Germany calls the shots in the EU, and here it is leading in its own interest. However, also in the EU’s, as far as the bloc having access to more reasonably priced natural gas, which many need. The cherry on the cake for Russia in this move is the containment of U.S foreign gas expansion. That being said, the EU is showing a massive weakness in all of this, which is clearly its own energy dependence on outside actors. Read more: “The Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline Moves On,” by The Economist staff. “France Moves to Halt Russia’s Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline,” by Oliver Moody for the Times. “Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline to Open By November,” by Ian P. Johnson for DW. “EU Moves to Control Russian Gas Pipeline Nord Stream 2,” by Katharina Bahn for DW. Can Russia Crack The Middle Eastern Puzzle? In the past decade we have seen major shifts of power globally, most notably in the Middle East. In recent history, Europe (especially the UK & France, Italy narrowly) have controlled this region, getting their claws on the vast oil reserves this part of the world has. Once the European colonialism era came to an end, the U.S was strategically ready to pick up the broken pieces and reap the benefits. Now that the U.S is pulling back militarily, there is a new sheriff in town, although for how long? Much of today’s Middle East is the shattered Ottoman Empire. Since the beginning of times great civilizations have sprouted in the Middle East, including the Egyptians, Phoenicians and Persians. Besides oil, the Middle East is also home to the largest religions of the world. The combination of the latter two have made it a constant battleground for political, economic and religious interests. Today, the Middle East does not have a single ruler, each faction fends for their own interests. There is a real melting pot of creeds and people that not always get