"How The World Sees Russia" Issue #32: 11/03/2018 From the Publisher: This week’s Rossiya Scan begins with a look at the Russian Navy. Russia has modernized its military substantially over the past decade. However, its navy has yet to have the type of overhaul that other branches have been showered with. Poor maintenance of vessels, old dry docks, and corrupt shipyards have made it increasingly difficult for Russia to have a strong navy. In this issue, we look at the state of the Russian Navy, and provide you with some of the main reasons as to why it is struggling. We then move on to NATO. The military alliance launched the “Trident Juncture 2018” war games in Norway. The exercises include all members of the coalition plus Sweden and Finland. The purpose of this event is to show a strong sign of cohesive force from the longstanding alliance. Tensions are heightening on both sides, and we break down what these games mean from a geopolitical standpoint. In many prior issues we have analyzed the reasons why Russia has such a strong playbook in the Middle East. We look at how Russia is using its realpolitik playbook to gain favor with Saudi Arabia in the aftermath of the gruesome murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The West has correctly condemned the murder, while Russia is ignoring it, and using the chaos to further strengthen its position in the region. Finally, we revisit the latest news on sanctions against Russia. Unlike before, Russia is preparing for them. All in an effort to better cushion its economy, and not be hit as severely by them. How effective will these financial defenses be? It’s tough to say, but it can be said that Russia is getting ready, and using some straightforward, and strong economic mechanisms to do so. -Rossiya Scan NOTE: Because of transatlantic travel, issue #33 will be sent at a later time on Saturday than usual. We apologize for the inconvenience, and thank you for your ongoing support. The Russian Navy: "Moscow...We Have a Problem" The Russian Navy has a problem. It is composed of an aged fleet that is prone to accidents and breakdowns due to years of poor maintenance. A reality that has led to a series of high-profile incidents that have been both tragic, and an embarrassment for Russia. For example, in 2000, an explosion in the Kursk submarine led to the death of all 118 crew-members. In 2009, Russia’s only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, lost a crew-member due to a short-circuit fire. In 2016, the same aircraft-carrier was seen belching a thick cloud of black smoke as it passed the English channel on its journey to the Mediterranean. “After 20 to 25 years, all you have is what's left on the shelf," said Bryan Clark, senior fellow for the Center of Strategic and Budgetary Studies, according to Business Insider. "You can't live on older ships.” What’s perhaps even more of an evident sign that Russia’s Navy is aging beyond any possibility of refurbishment is their reliance on tugs. The latter have become a standard accompaniment for most of their surface vessels. The tugs are basically an indication that the ship might break down, and be in need of it. In other words, a vessel with a tug is a ship with problems. A clear sign that Russia’s navy is aging, and insufficient. “The ‘dreaded’ Russian Navy never goes out without a tug in case a ship goes down,” said Michael Kofman, a research scientist for the Center of Naval Analyses in an interview with The National Interest. “That tells you a lot.” As stated in prior issues Rossiya Scan, Russia has modernized its military over the past decade. However, its focus has been mostly on ground and air units. Some of these have seen substantial upgrades, and can stand on par, or at times even surpass, their Western counterparts competing products. There has been talk in Moscow of re-building the navy. This is likely to take time though, as it is also seeing a constant stream of accidents in its ports and shipbuilding facilities. Numerous fires were reported throughout the 2000s. This past week, the PD-50 dry dock in Murmansk, the largest of its kind in Russia, sank while the Admiral Kuznetsov carrier was receiving an overhaul. The PD-50 services all vessels of Russia's most powerful fleet. If this dry dock finds itself out of commission for years, or is completely lost in this accident, it would be a serious hit for Russia’s overall naval readiness. Corruption in the shipyards has also been a constant problem for the Russian Navy. It has contributed to Russia’s demise in terms of properly establishing an effective industry that can build quality ships in a steady production line fashion. “Russia’s shipbuilding industry is the worst of all its defense industries,” said Kofman to the National Interest. Corruption, delays, maintenance problems are apparently the rule and not the exception. “A couple of the shipyards got racked with terrible corruption, the owners basically stole billions and ran off with them, which really hurt Russia’s shipbuilding plans.” What is obvious from all the above is that Russia has not focused its efforts on its navy. This will have consequences if it wishes to be seen a complete global player in terms of military prowess. However, the Russian Navy and its industrial complex have some serious wounds. Lesions that have grown worse with with time, and that will now require some serious corrective surgery. Read more: "The Russian Navy is Powerful (But Suffers from 2 big Fatal Flaws)," by Dave Majumdar for The National Interest. "Tug Sailing with Russian Ships Reveals Their Fleets Biggest Problem" by Caitlin Foster for Business Insider. "Russia's Drydock Accident Could Have Far Larger Repercussions Than a Damaged Carrier," by Tyler Rogoway for the The Drive. "Russian Navy Suffers Another Blow, As Aircraft Carrier is Damaged While Undergoing Repairs," by Pavel Felgenhaeur for the Jamestown Foundation. ​ NATO War Games: Who Has The Longest Sword? On the 25 th of October, NATO launched the “Trident Juncture 2018” war games in Norway, the largest war games performed by NATO since the 1980’s. Recently we discussed the strategic implications/intentions of the war games carried out by Russia in the Eastern border with China, which were significantly greater (300.000 troops, compared to the 50.000 troops deployed in “Trident Juncture 2018”). In previous issues, we have also highlighted Russia’s sense of paranoia when there is military activity close to its borders. More specifically, its apprehension for NATO as a united force; created by Western countries to contain/threaten Russia (depending on which angle you see it from). Once again history comes in play, and misinterpretations can be very dangerous at this stage, given the current global political tensions. These war games are a rehearsal should Norway be invaded, by a “fictitious aggressor” in the North Eastern Flank (e.g. Russia), broadcasting a strong message to Russia. NATO needs to coordinate 29 countries as a united front to counter Russian hostility, its also worth noting that Sweden and Finland have also chosen to participate in these war games. In issue #28 , we highlighted Sweden’s concerns with Russia, and their defense preparations, which are tied directly to their perceived view of an increasingly aggressive Russia. Following the annexation of Crimea, NATO created a “Joint Task Force” to act swiftly in response to an attack on an allied member of NATO within days. War has evolved in recent decades; NATO is also going over different war tactics as well as remodeling its readiness for cyber attacks, for which Russia is notorious. Even though Russia and Germany currently have good diplomatic ties, there was once a time where they were bitter enemies. On June 22, 1941, the world saw the largest invasion force in the history of warfare (Operation Barbarossa). The Germans used their infamous Blitzkrieg offensive, to rapidly reach the outskirts of Moscow, practically neutralizing the USSR. We are pointing this out, because the second largest contingent in these war games was Germany (arising ghosts from the past). Furthermore, Germany will lead the rapid response force of NATO, and is driving the idea of a European army. ​ As Gordon B. Hinckley, a renowned Mormon clergy men once put forth, “Conflict grows out of ignorance and suspicion”. In Rossiya scan, we understand that recent events have cooled communication between Russia and the West, leading to an escalation of events following the Russian war games “Vostok 2018”. Notwithstanding, amidst the annexation of Crimea and hostile signals towards Sweden, these war games were held in the eastern, not western border of Russia. Russia is a one-man show, maneuverable, with a reputation to react to signs of aggression. NATO is a 29-member coalition, with interests that rarely align, or able to make fast decisions. These exercises will have consequences, and further nurture Russia’s suspicion of the West. Adding to the weariness Russia already has towards its Sino neighbors, feeling cornered between the West and the East, Russia could be reckless. Read more: “NATO Is in the Middle of an Expensive and Dangerous Military Exercise. Here’s Why Those War Games Are Worth It,” by James Stavridis for the Time . “NATO launches biggest war games since end of Cold War,” by DW staff DW . “Nato holds biggest exercises since Cold War to counter Russia's growing presence around the Arctic” by Alec Luhn for the Telegraph . “German forces land in Norway for major NATO exercises” by Gwladys Fouche and Terje Solsvik for Reuters . Russia is Getting Ready for More Sanctions... "Sanctions are a sign of irritation; they are not the instrument of serious politics" - Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister It seems like the U.S have found a new love: the love of sanctions. Over the past year, they have imposed sanctions on various