"How The World Sees Russia" Issue #49: 03/30/2019 From the Publisher: Russia is back in Venezuela. It was reported that close to 100 Russian soldiers landed in Caracas this week for "technical military cooperation". Moscow is caught in a tug of war with Washington DC as they continue to show their support for the criminal Nicolas Maduro regime. We again look at why Russia continues to back Maduro’s government, and how this fits with their global realpolitik strategy. U.S President Donald Trump can breathe a little easier now. The report by U.S Special Counsel is said to have not found evidence of collusion between his presidential campaign and the Russian government. Russia, however, was not exonerated and with elections coming up we ponder as to how this will affect relations between both countries. Russia continues to make moves in the arctic. It holds one of the strongest playbook's in this global flashpoint, and has even begun to exert its power with a military presence. We visit the latest from this region, and speculate about whats to come. Finally, the U.S seems to be eager to enter a space race. We analyze why this is likely to be different from the prior space race of the Cold War, and explain why we are still at the very early stages of such a potential conflict. -Rossiya Scan Russia Sends Troops To Venezuela... This past week Russia sent approximately 100 of its armed services members to Venezuela. Moscow admitted to the presence of these soldiers, insisting that they are there for military consultations, and not for military operations. “Military experts are there; they are tasked with the practical implementation of provisions of military-technical cooperation agreements,” said Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry, in a televised briefing. In Rossiya Scan, we have already discussed Russia’s ​controversial ongoing support towards the autocratic and criminal regime of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro. This is an alliance where Moscow holds most of the cards ( with China ) as it is one of the biggest creditors of the financially bankrupted Venezuela. In fact, it is estimated that Russia has provided the inept Maduro regime with $17 billion in loans. Russia has been said to have fears of a non-Maduro regime taking over and not honoring these debts. Hence, the ongoing support for Maduro’s controversial rule. However, we at Rossiya Scan believe there is more to this support than money. Russia is unlikely to get any of the money it has lent Maduro’s government. As the latter has proven to be completely corrupt and inept at managing the country’s economy and its once highly productive oil industry. This reality is what fuels our belief that Russia is also using Venezuela for two distinct reasons. The first is to distract the U.S in its own sphere of influence, and to obtain yet another bargaining chip when negotiating with Washington D.C in other world affairs issues. The second, is to continue to build credibility for their security package offering. The latter is the one that they have been offering autocratic African leaders in exchange for various mineral and natural resource rights. If other autocratic leaders see that Russia is delivering, they are likely to accept their tutelage over others. As stated in prior issues , help from the U.S and the EU tends to come with more moralistic strings attached (e.g. democratic reform) , while Russia’s (similar to China’s) comes only with geopolitical and economic interests attached. So what will happen? We at Rossiya Scan believe that this action was carried more for show than actual help. Russia is not really interested in being involved in an actual war in Latin America. They are currently spread thin, and do not have the economic and defense muscle to carry it out effectively. However, Venezuela’s military is widely believed to be in disarray as far as maintenance. Since the early 2000s, the Venezuelan government shifted its purchases of defense equipment from the U.S and France to Russia. These Russian soldiers are likely to be providing guidance and help in this matter. Of course, this is bad news for the Venezuelan people, who are currently the victims of the military’s corruption and power grab. This help empowers them more, and ultimately strengthens Maduro’s illegitimate government further. That being said, Maduro’s regime is on the outs, and is increasingly likely to collapse with every passing day. Leaving Russia exposed to a complete economic and geopolitical loss. Read more: "Russia Confirms its Military Personnel Are in Venezuela," by Nathan Hodge Anna-Maja Rappard for CNN. "Russia Acknowledges Presence Of Troops in Venezuela," by Andrew Roth for the Guardian. "Why Russia Just Sent Troops To Venezuela," by Alex Ward for Vox. "Russia's Venezuelan Power Play," by The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board. What Is Going On With The Mueller Report? “It is double pleasure to deceive the deceiver” – Niccolo Machiavelli - Diplomat & Philosopher Even though this is not directly related to Russia, it is. U.S Special Counsel Robert Mueller who has been the lead investigator into the alleged Russian interference of the 2016 U.S election; following James Comey’s abrupt termination as the head of the FBI has cleared U.S President Donald Trump from alleged collusion with Russia. Notwithstanding, this exonerates Trump, not Russia. In 2016, Russians allegedly hacked into the Democratic National Committees database and leaked sensitive e-mails changing the course of the 2016 U.S Presidential elections in Trumps favor. The consequences of these accusations have paid a toll on Russia, leading to sanctions on the people closest to Russian President Vladimir Putin. More over, these were sanctions on top of the already existing ones enforced due to the annexation of Crimea and Sergei Skripal’s poisoning causing a snowball effect. Indirectly this has a spill over effect which changes the course of strategic diplomatic decisions due to the financial and commercial constraints imposed by these sanctions. For instance, we have discussed in several occasions how Russia has been limiting its dependence on Western trade, and ventured into new markets such as Africa, Latin America, Asia and the Middle East with all that this entails. Due to sanctions new friendships can unintentionally be dangerous for the status quo, for example we have discussed the “rapprochement” to China in commercial trade, military cooperation and new sources of finance. Even though we have voiced our opinion in this mutually beneficial relationship , which is more strategic than a real friendship, you never know how circumstances can evolve with time due to the level of entanglement between these two powers; which seem to share a common enemy. Going back to the topic in question, in Rossiya Scan we have highlighted our views on the way Trump may be related to Russia ​. However, according to Mueller there was no evidence of collusion. So Trump is exonerated from most doubts we may have had, maybe his firewalls are impregnable. Unless there are plans within plans… Mueller’s conclusion puts Russia on the spotlight, once again. We will have to see how diplomatic relations are affected with this undisclosed report. After all, we don’t know what is exactly in it. The report has not been made available to the public, and we still have some unanswered questions. The 2020 U.S Presidential elections is also approaching, and the report is likely to become a hot topic against the incumbent. Trump doesn’t seem as the brainiest person, although he has proven to be canny and navigate stormy waters emerging unscratched. Could Mueller and the democrats be letting Trump off easy to to keep his guard down? Are they trying to deceive the deceiver into making that one wrong move which could lead to that fatal blow, when the moment is right? Or was there no collusion, but an unwritten understanding where both sides recognized, and acted against a shared a main enemy (e.g. a Hilary Clinton or Democratic party administration)? One thing is for sure, the Democrats need a clear win, and here they did not attain one. Read more: “Trump Did Not Obstruct Justice Over Russia Probe, Attorney General Rules After Mueller Declines to Determine criminality,” by Zamira Rahim for the Independent. “U.S. Imposes New Sanctions On Russian Entities Over 2016 Election Meddling,” by Elana Schor, Andrew Restuccia and Corry Bennet for Politico . “Top Democrat's Emails Hacked by Russia After Aide Made Typo, Investigation Finds,” by Luke Harding for the Guardian . “Robert Mueller: What liberals Make Of The Special Counsel Now,” by Vicky Baker for the BBC . Has Russia Won The Arctic? “Now we can safely say that Russia will expand through the Arctic this and next century. This is where the largest mineral reserves are located. This is the site of a future transport artery that I am sure will be very good and efficient: The Northern Sea Route.” - Mikhail Lomonosov - Russian Polymath, Writer and Scientist In Rossiya Scan, we have touched on the different hot spots which could lead to a sharp rise in global tensions, such as the South China sea , but also on the Arctic circle . The ice caps of the latter are melting rapidly, and geopolitical aims are at odds for the many players claiming a piece. The Arctic region has untapped resources like no other part of the world (estimated resources value $35 trillion), and when the ice caps melt the Northern sea route will be 30% faster than the southern one. This will shift influence from the Suez and Panama canals, to whomever has effectively positioned its pieces on the chessboard, reaping most of the benefits that controlling a major shipping route brings about. There are several economic and political factors in play here, for starters the territory in the Arctic (land or sea) is divided between 8 countries: