"How The World Sees Russia" Issue #42: 02/02/2019 From the Publisher: It happened... The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty has been officially suspended. After months of threats, the U.S and Russia effectively called off the treaty. The first to instigate this was the U.S, who effectively pulled away from it yesterday. Russia responded in kind today, and confirmed the end of this longstanding treaty. As stated in prior issues, we believe that the rise of China to be a key instigator in the suspension of this treaty. The world is changing, and Cold War treaties are not addressing the geopolitical concerns of both the U.S and Russia. Hence, we forecast that we are likely to see more old treaties fall by the way side over the next few years. Moscow is said to have offered Pyongyang a nuclear power plant in exchange for their weapons mass destruction. North Korea is essentially a Chinese sphere of influence. Beijing is an ally of Moscow, but one that appears to be of mere convenience. This move by Moscow could mean several things, and we unpack some for you in this issue. The theories and stories surrounding U.S President Donald Trump’s personal relationship with Russia are vast. We briefly visit this topic and consider all the geopolitical moves that have been happening lately. Is Trump compromised? We don’t know, but discuss some of the aspects in this increasingly global story. Finally, Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska has had the sanctions against his companies lifted. It appears that a deal was made, however, the details are not entirely clear. Deripaska appears to have retained a controlling stake in his companies. Hence, this story is likely to heat up as far as U.S domestic politics, and in turn ripple into the international. Members of the U.S Democratic party are unhappy with this decision from the U.S Treasury department, and are likely to use whatever deal was made against the Trump administration. -Rossiya Scan R.I.P: The INF Treaty.... The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, one of the most successful treaties of the Cold War, is no longer in force. Russian President Vladimir Putin has deferred Russia’s commitments to the treaty, exactly one day after U.S Secretary Mike Pompeo announced that the U.S would no longer stand by this arms control pact. Putin met earlier today with members of his cabinet to craft a response to Washington’s decision to pullout of the treaty. After the meeting Putin announced that Moscow would respond in kind. "We will do as follows," said Putin during a meeting with the press, according to RFE/RL. "We will come up with a tit-for-tat response. Our American partners have announced the suspension of their participation in the treaty, so we will suspend as well." The INF Treaty from 1987 prohibited the elaboration, construction, and positioning of both ground-launched cruise or ballistic missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. The treaty was also the first to essentially eliminate an entire class of missiles. Moscow and Washington blamed each other for violating the treaty prior to its dismissal. The U.S, and its NATO allies, have told Russia that their new generation of land-based missiles, 9M279 violate treaty. On the other hand, Russia has stated its displeasure with the American made THAAD anti-missile defense system. Stating that that the missiles used in this defense system, which are expected to be housed in Poland, don’t respect the treaty. Of course, as previously discussed in prior issues of Rossiya Scan, there is also a Beijing angle to the INF denouement. China is not a signatory to the treaty, and has been developing intermediate range missiles without constraints. Even positioning these missiles on artificial reefs in the South China sea, an area that is widely seen as a major point of future conflict. The U.S views China as the biggest threat to its geopolitical interests. Russia (although an ally of Beijing) has also exhibited hesitations about its strengthening neighbor. Beijing, unsurprisingly, called for Russia and the U.S to reconcile. "China opposes the United States' move to denounce the treaty and urges the U.S. and Russia to properly settle the differences through efficient dialogues," said a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement. The arms control structure of the Cold War era appears to be reaching its expiration date. Without the participation of other nations, such as China, its ability to effectively tackle the global security problems of the 21st century is coming to an end. Its framework puts Moscow and Washington at a disadvantage against other global and regional players who do not have these constraints. Hence, the INF treaty is likely to not be the only arms control pact to be deemed obsolete. Others, such as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which was signed in 2010 by the U.S and Russia, is another pact that is likely to be in the chopping block when it is set to expire in 2021. For some it still holds too much of a Cold War era DNA, and again puts a restraint on the two main actors of that retro global reality. U.S President Donald Trump and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have already singled it out as a potential treaty that could be discarded in the future. Of course, as the former main players of the Cold War dismantle these treaties, a new global arms race is likely to follow. That being said, this arms race has been effectively going on for the past decade. There is now less holding these two back though, which means that the splash made by Russia and the U.S is in defense manufacturing is likely to heat things up. After all, Russia and the U.S have the most sophisticated, and mature defense industries on the planet. Read more: "In Tit-For-Tat Move, Putin Announces Russian Suspension Of INF Treaty," by RFE/RL staff. "The Cold War Treaty is Dead," by Ivan Tselichtchev for the South China Morning Post. "Russia Follows U.S in Suspending INF Nuclear Treaty," by Mary Ilyushina, Jack Guy and Steven Jiang for the CNN. "U.S Announces Withdrawal from INF Missile Treaty," by DW staff. What Was Behind Russia’s Offer to North Korea? Currently the world is at disarray, we have the government of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro collapsing (critical, yet alive), the Middle East is an explosive cocktail (we know all the ingredients, but not how it will end), Africa is a mess, Europe is politically fragmented and North America has the erratic U.S President Donald Trump at its helm (this speaks for itself). Scanning the global landscape, we spot another issue which means more than what it seems, and could be an answer to a few unexplained questions. Even though Asia is not currently on the spotlight, developments are happening. Japan is re-militarizing; South Korea has installed the THAAD anti missile defense system (deterring Chinas nuclear capabilities), China’s rhetoric to re-unify Taiwan is menacing and the South China sea is a powder keg waiting to explode. All major powers are involved in Asia one way or another, entangled in a giant knot. Previously in Rossiya Scan we have discussed the friendly, but no so friendly accord that Russia has with its Sino-neighbor. North Korea has always had strong ties with China, to the point of being practically dependent on their Sino neighbors for trade and economic help. Due to its closeness to the secretive state, we believe that China has consistently leveraged North Korea as a political tool in its favor when convenient. However, out of the blue it has been revealed that Russia is also attempting to broker a deal with North Korea; offering the totalitarian state a power plant in exchange for their nuclear weapons. North Korea is in dire need for energy, Russia has the expertise and resources to alleviate this critical problem North Korea has. This action indirectly puts Russia in conflict with China, steeling attention. Although, this is interesting because Trump is openly claiming the success and progress made with North Korea, when nothing has yet to be achieved. Considering the links being tied between Russia and the U.S this makes us reflect, what was discussed last time Putin and the Trump met during the G20 with no U.S attaches present (besides other topics)? Once again, this could be a major power play induced by Russia via the backdoor communication channel we have previously discussed . It makes sense for Trump to ask this favor from the Russian leader ( which some claim he looks up to as a mentor) to make some headway in this world flashpoint. A place where the interest of both is actually more aligned. Each could also boost their popularity if an agreement is reached. Perhaps, even more so if there is an admittance that it was done jointly. On the other hand, Russia is sending a strong message to China. Unless Russia did this at the behest of Beijing. We doubt that the latter is the case though, given the fact that China does very little in regard to pressuring North Korea, as they are more interested in maintaining the status quo. Although Trump has taken on Putin more directly than the prior Obama administration in some areas, we believe the Trump's more direct approach to Moscow is in the interest of the Kremlin in the long run. This will be even more valuable to Russia if Trump is re-elected. Potentially posing a threat to China, whilst Russia remains comfortably seated between both. Read more: “Russia Offered North Korea Power Plant in Exchange For Nuclear Weapons,” by Nicholas Smith for the Telegraph . “Russia Secretly Offered North Korea a Nuclear Power Plant: Officials,” by John Hudson and Ellen Nakashima for the Sydney Morning Herald. “Trump Sat Down with Putin at G20 without U.S Note-Taker,” by James Politi, Demetri Sevastopulo and Henry Foy for the Financial Times. “Dark Nights in Power-Starved North Korea," by Agence France-Presse staff. Trump… Kompromat ? “An educated person is one who has learned that